IATA: RPKs unlikely to recover before 2024, downside scenario 'could be much more severe'

IATA stated (30-Jul-2020) it expects RPKs to decline by "a little more than 60%" year-on-year in 2020 and a return to pre-COVID-19 RPK levels is not likely to occur before 2024. The risks in IATA's forecast "remain clearly tilted to the downside". The association stated the "upside" scenario could see travel demand return to 2019 levels in 2023, but "the downside could be much more severe". IATA reported the trajectory of new COVID-19 cases has been worse than anticipated in its Apr-2020 forecast. While business confidence, and possibly GDP growth, has rebounded, consumer confidence has not. IATA stated: "We will likely see a degree of pent-up demand to visit friends and family in the near-term as travel restrictions are lifted but we are less optimistic about the return of business (in particular) and leisure travel". [more - original PR]