IATA: Passenger and cargo traffic continue growth trend in 4Q2025

IATA reported (20-Feb-2026) the following highlights from its Air Transport Chartbook for 4Q2025:

• Passengers:
  • Global passenger traffic in RPKs increased 6% year-on-year. Global passenger capacity in ASKs increased 5.7%, resulting in a 0.2pp increase in load factor to 84%;
  • International traffic increased 8%. Economy class demand grew 8.1% and premium demand grew 6.7%. The international segment contributed more than 80% of total RPK growth;
  • Domestic traffic increased 2.8%, led by Brazil with 10.3% growth. The US market contracted 0.7%, marking its fourth consecutive quarterly decline;
  • Global scheduled seat capacity is forecast to grow 3.3% in 1Q2026, moderating slightly from 3.7% in 4Q2025. Regional growth is expected to remain uneven;
• Cargo:
  • Global cargo demand in CTKs increased 4.6%, marking the highest quarterly growth of 2025, the 10th consecutive quarter of growth and a new record volume. IATA stated the performance reflects "sustained resilience despite differing regional trajectories". Capacity increased 4.7%, marking the strongest result of 2025 and the 12th consecutive quarterly expansion. Load factor decreased 0.1pp to 45.9% in seasonally adjusted terms. IATA commented: "Demand generally kept pace with supply, even as capacity expanded across most regions";
  • International traffic increased 5.7%, marking the 10th consecutive quarterly gain. All regions except the Americas contributed to the increase. International capacity increased 6.5% for bellyhold and 6.4% for dedicated freighters, marking the fastest growth of 2025 for both categories;
• Fuel:
  • Crude oil prices decreased 8% compared to 3Q2025 to an average of USD63.7 per barrel. The drop was primarily driven by mounting concerns over persistent oversupply;
  • Jet fuel prices increased 1% compared to 3Q2025 to an average of USD91.4 per barrel. The jet fuel crack spread widened by 30% to USD27.7;
  • Global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production is estimated at 1.9 million tonnes for 2025, compared to one million tonnes in 2024, accounting for 0.6% of total jet fuel consumption. SAF output is projected to increase at a slower pace to reach 2.4 million tonnes (0.8% of demand) in 2026. IATA stated "ineffective policies", and notably SAF mandates, "are leading to fragmentation, higher prices, though not any discernible increase in production or in CO2 emissions reduction";
  • SAF milestones in 4Q2025 included the start of production in Brazil and Malaysia. Six SAF purchase deals were announced, bringing the total to 39 for 2025 and marking the highest annual total to date. [more - original PR]