Global GDP expands by 3.9% in 2010, +3.3% forecast in 2011: World Bank
The World Bank, in its Global Economic Prospects 2011 report, stated (12-Jan-2011) the world economy is moving from a post-crisis bounce-back phase of the recovery to slower but still solid growth this year and next, with developing countries contributing almost half of global growth. The World Bank estimates that global GDP, which expanded by 3.9% in 2010, will slow to 3.3% in 2011, before it reaches 3.6% in 2012. Developing countries are expected to grow 7% in 2010, 6% in 2011 and 6.1% in 2012. They will continue to outstrip growth in high-income countries, which is projected at 2.8% in 2010, 2.4% in 2011 and 2.7% in 2012. Regional highlights include:
- East Asia and Pacific: GDP growth estimated at 9.3% for 2010, led the global recovery. This was on the back of an estimated 10% increase in China's GDP and a 35% increase in its imports. Output growth in the rest of the region was also strong at 6.8%. GDP growth is projected to slow, but remain strong at 8% in 2011 and 7.8% in 2012.
- Europe and Central Asia: Following a 6.6% decline in GDP during 2009, output is expected to expand by 4.7% in the region in 2010, as several countries undergo intense restructuring. Output in Bulgaria, the Kyrgyz Republic, Lithuania and Romania stagnated or declined in 2010, and is forecast to expand by only 2% in 2011 and 3.3% in 2012. Excluding these countries, growth in the rest of the region is forecast to ease to 4.2% in 2011 and 2012. The recovery in the region remains particularly sensitive to the situation in high-income Europe;
- Latin America and Caribbean: Emerged from the global crisis well compared with its past performance and the pace of recovery in other regions. After contracting by 2.2% in 2009, GDP is estimated to have expanded 5.7% in 2010, similar to the average growth recorded during the 2004-2007 boom years. Growth is forecast to slow to around 4% in 2011 and 2012, largely because of a weaker external environment as growth in advanced economies and China moderates;
- Middle East and North Africa: A modest upturn in growth in 2010 was seen in 2010 with growth of 3.3%. The region is expected to see stronger gains of 4.3% and 4.4% in 2011 and 2012 respectively, as domestic demand growth continues, export markets firm, and oil prices remain at high levels;
- South Asia: Projected to post GDP growth of 7.9% on average over the 2011-2012 fiscal years, buoyed by vibrant growth in India. This compares with estimated growth of 8.7% in fiscal year 2010;
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Output expanded by an estimated 4.7% in 2010, a strong rebound following a 1.7% growth rate in 2009. In South Africa, the region‘s largest economy, witnessed growth at an estimated 2.7% in 2010. South African growth is projected to pick up to 3.5% and 4.1% in 2011 and 2012 respectively, as global conditions improve further. The rest of the region, excluding South Africa has actually fared better. GDP for these countries expanded an estimated 5.8% in 2010 and is projected to grow 6.4% in 2011 and 6.2% in 2012. [more]