10-Mar-2010 8:59 AM

FAA expected 1 billion passengers on US airlines by 2023; yields to decrease over next 20 years

US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) released its 2010-2030 forecast, predicts (09-Mar-2010) an increase in domestic passenger emplacements by 0.5% in 2010 and growth at an average of 2.5% p/a during the remaining forecast period. Total operations at airports are forecast to decrease 2.7% to 51.5 million in 2010 (followed by an average annual growth rate of 1.5%), reaching 69.6 million in 2030. The 35 busiest airports are expected to increase operations by 60% from 2010 to 2030. The figures, according to the FAA, underscoring the need for NextGen and continued investment in airport infrastructure projects. Forecast details include:

  • US GDP: Increase at 2.6% p/a, growing from USD13.0 trillion in 2009 to USD22.4 trillion in 2030, World GDP is forecast to grow at 3.2% over the same period, from USD49.0 trillion to USD94.6 trillion. US GDP decreased 2.8% in 2009, while world GDP fell 2.3%;
  • Yields:
    • Domestic: Forecast to increase from USD11.96 cents in 2009 to USD12.15 cents in 2010 (up 1.6%, adjusted for inflation). Domestic mainline carrier real yield is then expected to decline at an average rate of 1.0% p/a dropping to USD10.01 cents in 2030. Domestic yields fell 8.6% in 2009
    • International: Mainline real yield forecast to increase from USD11.69 cents in 2009 to USD 12.05 cents in 2010, but decline at a rate of 0.7% p/a thereafter, falling to USD10.45 cents by 2030. International yields fell 12.9% in 2009;
  • Landings/takeoffs: In 2009, total landings and takeoffs at combined FAA and contract towers were down 10.4% year-on-year, with air carrier activity decreasing 6.9%;
  • Passenger forecasts: US airlines to reach 1 billion passengers p/a by 2023. Passengers on US airlines domestically and internationally forecast to increase from 704 million in 2009 to 1.21 billion by 2030, an average annual rate of 2.6%. Domestic enplanements are projected to increase 0.4% in 2010 and then grow an average of 2.5% p/a during the remaining 20-year forecast period. International enplanements are forecast to increase 0.9% in 2010, with an average growth of 4.1% p/a. Total system enplanements are expected to reach one billion in 2023.
  • Total passengers to/from US (US and foreign flag carriers): Projected to increase 3.3% in 2010, with an average growth rate of 4.2% p/a between 2009 and 2031, increasing from 147.1 million to 347.9 million.
    • Asia/Pacific:5.1% p/a;
    • Latin America: 4.3% p/a;
    • Atlantic: 3.9% p/a:
    • Canadian Transborder: 3.4% p/a.
  • Fleet: US mainline air carrier passenger jet fleet is expected to increase at 1.8% p/a, growing from 3,666 aircraft in 2009 to 5,342 aircraft in 2030. Fleet projected to shrink by 0.5% in 2010 (-17 aircraft). The regional carrier passenger aircraft fleet forecast to grow at 1.3%, increasing from 2,612 aircraft to 3,401 aircraft in 2030. The regional fleet is projected to shrink by 4.3% in 2010 (-113 aircraft);
  • Cargo: Total air cargo Registered Ton Miles (RTMs) (freight/express and mail) is expected to increase from 30.8 billion in 2009 to 86.6 billion in 2030 (+5.0% p/a), with domestic RTMS expected to increase 2.1% p/a and international RTMs expected to gain 6.3% p/a. [more]