National University of Singapore Prof of Aviation Law Alan Khee-Jin Tan, speaking at the CAPA Australia Pacific Aviation Summit, stated (07-Aug-2013) there is a risk that the ASEAN single aviation market becomes “single in name” with airlines lobbying some countries such as Indonesia to stay out of the plan. Indonesia wants to open its skies “piecemeal” through bilateral air services agreement. The project “stops with third, fourth and fifth freedom rights”. According to Prof Tan a true single sky needs seventh freedom rights and not possessing this will disadvantage and “hobble” ASEAN carriers in the long run.
ASEAN single aviation market threatened
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Southeast Asia’s low cost airline fleet grew by only 7% in 2016, representing the slowest growth in several years. The region’s two main groups, AirAsia and Lion, both slowed their growth significantly, with AirAsia slightly reducing its Southeast Asian fleet in 2016.
Southeast Asian LCCs ended 2016 with a fleet of 623 aircraft – up a modest 41 aircraft compared to the beginning of the year. The same group of 21 airlines added 67 aircraft in 2015 and 61 aircraft in 2014.
Several airlines responded to overcapacity, which peaked in 2014 following a period of overzealous capacity expansion, by deferring aircraft deliveries. Overcapacity continues to persist in several Southeast Asian markets, but some LCCs are reaccelerating expansion in 2017. Given the sector’s huge order book it is likely 2016 will represent the low point in Southeast Asian LCC fleet growth.
Global commercial aircraft deliveries fell in 2016 as Boeing again outsold Airbus; 2017 to be a peak
The global commercial aircraft fleet grew by 4% in 2016 and the year ended with an order backlog of more than nine years of production. Among the regions, North America still has the biggest and oldest fleet, but the lowest ratio of orders to aircraft in service. By contrast, Middle East has the fewest in service, but the highest ratio of orders to current fleet numbers.
This report gives an overview of the number of commercial aircraft deliveries in 2016 and the outlook into 2017 and beyond. It also looks at numbers in service and on order by region. It is based on preliminary numbers from the CAPA Fleet Database and guidance on 2016 deliveries from Airbus and Boeing, who have yet to announce final numbers.
The data indicate that total worldwide deliveries fell in 2016, the first such decline for six years, as a result of delays to new aircraft programmes. Boeing delivered more aircraft than Airbus for the fifth straight year, but its deliveries fell short of its 2015 level, while Airbus increased its numbers year-on-year. Total deliveries will likely rise again in 2017, but this may prove to be a peak year.