Airbus released its Global Market Forecast (GMF) for 2013-2032, forecasting that as aviation becomes increasingly accessible in all parts of the world, future journeys will increasingly be made by air particularly to and from emerging markets. Airbus expects air traffic will grow at 4.7% p/a, increasing from 2.9 billion to 6.7 billion by 2032. This will require over 29,220 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at nearly USD4.4 trillion. 28,350 of these are passenger aircraft valued at USD4.1 trillion. 10,400 will replace existing aircraft with more efficient ones. Airbus expects the global airfleet will increase to nearly 36,560 aircraft, almost double the current 17,740 aircraft. Economic growth, growing middle classes, affordability, ease of travel, urbanisation, tourism, and migration are some factors increasing connectivity between people and regions and how often they travel. Overall, with an above world average traffic growth rate of 5.5%, the Asia-Pacific will account for 36% of all new passenger aircraft demand, followed by Europe (20%) and North America (19 per cent). Domestic flows are also set to rise strongly with domestic India growing at the fastest rate (nearly 10%), followed by China and Brazil (7%). By 2032, Airbus forecasts LCCs will have increased their traffic market share from today’s 17% to 21%.Breakdown by aircraft type:
- Very Large Aircraft: 1334 passenger aircraft valued at USD519 billion:
- Asia-Pacific: 47%;
- Middle East: 26%;
- Europe: 16%.
- Twin-engine widebody: 6779 aircraft valued at USD1.82 trillion:
- Asia-Pacific: 48%;
- Europe: 15%;
- Middle East: 13%;
- Narrowbody: 20,242 aircraft valued at USD1.80 trillion:
Airbus: “By 2032, Asia-Pacific will lead the world in traffic overtaking Europe and North America. Today on average, a fifth of the population of the emerging markets take a flight annually and by 2032, this will swell to two thirds. The attraction of air travel means that passenger numbers will more than double from today’s 2.9 billion, to 6.7 billion by 2032, clearly demonstrating aviation’s essential role in economic growth,” John Leahy, chief operating officer – customers. Source: Airbus, 24-Sep-2013.