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CAPA World Aviation Summit

Helsinki, Finland
7-8 Oct 2015
Finnair on 07-Oct-2015 took delivery of its first A350 XWB, becoming the third operator overall – after Qatar Airways and Vietnam Airlines – and the first in Europe. The aircraft brings needed benefits to the airline: lower operating costs and an improved passenger product. The A350s also mark the start of more growth for Finnair’s home base, Helsinki Airport, which is expanding its terminal to support Finnair.
Royal Jordanian chief commercial officer Richard Nuttall discusses the improvements driven by the now completed network restructuring and introduction of five 787-8s. After dropping 15 destinations, Royal Jordanian is now again in growth mode with new services to Jakarta and Guangzhou to be launched in late 2015. But overall the airline is still taking a cautious approach to expansion as market conditions in Jordan remain challenging. Royal Jordanian has had to rely on new sixth freedom city pairs to offset the reduction in visitor traffic to Jordan and the suspension of services to South Asia.
Qantas CEO Alan Joyce discusses the group’s successful restructuring and turnaround. On 7-Oct-2015 at an awards dinner in Helsinki, CAPA named Qantas as the 2015 CAPA Airline Turnaround of the Year and Mr Joyce as the 2015 Airline Chief Executive of the Year. Qantas and Mr Joyce were chosen by the CAPA Aviation Awards for Excellence judging panel for the group’s remarkable turnaround. The judges were particularly impressed by the massive restructuring programme led by Mr Joyce and his ability to tackle complex industrial relations challenges. In this interview from the 2015 CAPA World Aviation Summit in Helsinki, Mr Joyce also discusses about new growth opportunities for the group’s full-service international unit and opportunities in the New Zealand market, where it has launched a low-cost regional turboprop operation. Mr Joyce also provides an update on the performance of the Qantas-Emirates partnership. The bold decision to partner with Emirates was another achievement highlighted by the CAPA judging panel. CAPA noted Mr Joyce's strong will in taking very hard decisions – grounding the airline during a battle with three key unions over demands on conditions, large redundancies and capacity discipline, especially in the domestic market – contributed to the turnaround.

Now in its thirteenth year, CAPA’s Aviation Awards for Excellence are intended to reward airlines and airports that are not only successful but have also provided industry leadership in an always changing environment. At a time of industry upheaval, our winners are adopting strategies that offer new directions for others to take up.

Award candidates were independently researched and short-listed by a team analysts at CAPA - Centre for Aviation and partners at Heidrick & Struggles. Winners were then selected by an independent global panel of eight judges.

CAPA named Qantas as the 2015 CAPA Airline Turnaround of the Year and Mr Joyce as the 2015 Airline Chief Executive of the Year.

Acting CEO Marcin Celejewski gives his view of the key challenges he faces in his new position and confirms that LOT's search for an external investor is continuing.
CEO Martin Gauss talks to CAPA about airBaltic's growth plans, renewed competition from Vueling and the possibility of using regional airports in Latvia. He also hints at progress in his airline's search for an external investor.
ANA Holdings senior executive advisor to the chairman Keisuke Okada discusses the group’s strategy for investing in other airlines and plans for organic expansion. ANA launched services to Kuala Lumpur in Sep-2015 and is launching Sydney in Dec-2015.
From its inception the airline industry has juggled the balance between public interest, national interest and commercial operations. This complex triangle has produced corporate contortions and considerable national angst.
After decades of airline operation within a highly regulated bilateral system, dominated by national “flag carriers”, disruptive operating strategies have pushed LCCs to flying over a third of all global airline seats. But otherwise the old system has remained largely un-disrupted.
More recently there have been numerous suggestions that WTO principles and machinery should be selectively applied to restrain Gulf airline expansion. This is clearly neither logical nor likely to happen.
But it raises the question again of: what would the airline industry look like if WTO principles applied across the board?
The absence of “archaic” bilateral controls, especially those that prevent cross-border ownership, would surely mean a very different industry profile. Some arguments have also raised the suggestion that safety could be compromised if the existing regulatory system was changed – although this would hardly appear insurmountable. The automotive industry has 10 global companies; Uber is disrupting the taxi industry; the hotel industry is a collection of brand aggregations, also with many smaller players; the telecommunications industry was disrupted two decades ago. Where to the airlines?
This panel will attempt to recreate the airline industry from the ground up.
 Are there lessons to be learned from other industries?
 Would mergers be good for consumers; would airlines be more responsive to consumer needs?
 Would there be less – or more – inter-government conflict?
 Are competition authorities adequate to deal with the issues of mergers and acquisitions?
 What are the issues in cross-border mergers, aside from the legalities?
 Would airlines make money and what public services role would they play?
 Regulatory viewpoints on the future of aviation market access
 What is a subsidy?

ModeratorCAPA - Centre for Aviation, Executive Chairman, Peter Harbison
Panellists:
 International Council of Tourism Partners, President, Geoffrey Lipman
 Irish Aviation Authority, CEO Eamonn Brennan
 Lufthansa, VP EU Affairs, Prof Dr Regula Dettling-Ott
 Norwegian CAA, Director, Stein Erik Nodeland
 WTO, Director, Trade in Services Division, Hamid Mamdouh
Global aviation liberalisation appears to be approaching a crossroad. In Asia, where market growth is strong and new entrants proliferate, active liberalisation is occurring as governments tacitly accept less rigid market access controls. Open skies are also being promoted by more formal means like the ASEAN open skies treaty and bilateral relaxation by Japan, Korea and Taiwan. Latin America, often under the influence of US pressures, is generally liberalising, albeit with large exceptions like Argentina. In the Middle East, even some of the more conservative regimes are starting to perceive removal of controls on access as being a positive; and there are even signs of cracks in the defensive walls in Africa.
But in Europe and the US, where the original motivation for greater openness originated, a move to freeze change at turn of the century levels appears to be emerging. For the time being it has numerically limited support - from Lufthansa, Air France, Delta, American and United. All perceive their own best interests as holding back change. Yet these major “flag carriers” are extremely vocal and still have the influence with their governments to tilt the balance - or do they?
Much of the present pushback is directed at the Gulf carriers, but there is an associated undercurrent of resort to reliance on the “archaic” bilateral concepts formulated in 1945. Fifth freedom services, third country codeshare – anything that smacks of the least deviation from pure bilateralism and restrictive ownership and control rules is being flagged as being “unfair competition” or as distorting the “level playing field”.
This panel session reviews the situation in each of the major regional markets, where they are heading – and what is happening where they intersect.
 What is/should be the role of regulators in the process?
 The carriers of change: who has the vested interests in a changed system? Who has the greatest stake in the status quo
 Can the old norms – ownership and control, nationalism etc – seriously - ever be changed?
 Will the emerging power of Asia and the Chinese airlines change the way the industry is regulated?
 Do – or should - airports have a voice in the process?

Provocateur at Large: Aviation Strategy & Concepts, Managing Director, Ulrich Schulte-Strathaus
Moderator: John Byerly Consultants, John Byerly
Panellists:
 Air China, VP & General Manager North America, Zhihang Chi
 ERA, Director General, Simon McNamara
 European Commission, Head of Unit, International Aviation Markets & Airports, DG Transport, Emmanuelle Maire
• LOT, Acting CEO, Marcin Celejewski
Airlines have sought many avenues to cement international partnerships, despite the constraints of ownership and control rules (meanwhile often happily using them to protect vested interests). Among the first early attempts at cross equity-linked alliances involving US airlines were Delta’s Global Excellence, with Swissair and Singapore Airlines in the late 1980s. But it was to be non-equity relationships that dominated the agenda for the next two decades, led by the success of the Northwest-KLM adventure on the Atlantic. These evolved into wider, subsequently global, alliances each built around a US-European airline axis, Star, oneworld and SkyTeam.
The so-called branded global alliances (BGAs) did not rely on equity to bind them, but subsequently developed tiers, such as the sub-alliances in the ATI metal neutral JVs on the North Atlantic. The BGAs still dominate global aviation, with many aircraft now “branded” with the alliance colours.
In the 21st century various ad hoc minority and other equity models have evolved, including the LCC groupings of cross-border JVs in Asia (eg AirAsia, Tigerair, Jetstar), full service airline groups of various kinds in Europe (eg AF-KLM, IAG and the Lufthansa Group) and Latin America (LATAM).
But it was not until Etihad developed an explicit strategy of acquiring substantial minority shareholdings in airlines around the world that the issue of equity came to the fore as a potential alternative. The Etihad Equity Partnership is still a one-off, but there are hints that some Asian airlines would be interested in following suit.
 The branded global alliances are evolving to meet new challenges. Are they moving fast enough?
 Are metal-neutral JVs creating juggernauts, making competition too lopsided?
 Do equity shares offer enduring alternatives for the smaller airlines?
 What other options exist for smaller airlines if they are to get their “level playing field”?
 Is Asia’s trans-national JV ownership model suitable for other regions?
 Is the Etihad Equity Partnership a useful model for others to follow?
 An airport’s perspective on accommodating alliances 

Moderator: CAPA - Centre for Aviation, Executive Chairman, Peter Harbison
Panellists:
 airBaltic, CEO, Martin Gauss
 ANA Holdings, Senior Executive Advisor to the Chairman, Keisuke Okada
 Ethiopian Airlines, CEO, Tewolde GebreMariam  Finnair, CCO, Juha Jarvinen
 Finavia, SVP Airport Network & Marketing, Joni Sundelin
Ethiopian Airlines was named the 2015 Airline of the Year at the CAPA Aviation Awards for Excellence gala dinner in Helsinki, which was held 7-Oct-2015 in conjunction with CAPA's World Aviation Summit. This award is given annually to the airline that has been the biggest standout strategically during the year, has had the greatest impact on the development of the airline industry, established itself as a leader, and provided a benchmark for others to follow. Ethiopian CEO Tewolde GebreMariam accepted the award from CAPA Executive Chairman Peter Harbison.
 
Ethiopian was selected by the judging panel for its ability to establish pan-African operations and thrive in an increasingly important emerging market where most airlines have struggled. Ethiopian has been a clear standout and emerged as the leader in Africa with a pioneering strategy. CAPA noted that Ethiopian has rapidly expanded its network in Africa, which now consists of a leading 45 destinations. Its position in Africa has been further strengthened by pursuing joint ventures and investments in other African carriers.
Ethiopian has also pursued rapid and successful expansion in Asia, where it now has 11 destinations, positioning Addis Ababa as the leading hub for the growing Asia-Africa market despite intensifying competition for such traffic from the Gulf carriers/hubs. Several new partnerships have been forged including with ANA, Singapore Airlines and United AIrlines, leveraging Ethiopian’s membership in Star.
flydubai CEO Ghaith Al Ghaith discusses the airline’s achievements in its first six years, including the delivery of its 50th 737 in late Sep-2015, and plans for future growth. The Dubai-based hybrid carrier is starting a new operation at Dubai’s second airport, Dubai World Central, on 25-Oct-2015 and is eyeing further growth to Iran and Africa. Market conditions in Russia and the CIS region have been challenging over the last year but flydubai is optimistic it can eventually resume growth in these key markets as well. flydubai has been encouraged by the uptake and customer response of its business class product, which was introduced two years ago.
The long-haul low cost model has proliferated in Asia, where no less than seven such airlines exist. As they have gained experience in Asia’s long haul markets, the variants have developed sweet spots and new operating criteria. “Long haul” has typically come to mean anything up to 8 hours flying, while increasingly the long haul version is relying on short haul connectivity.
There are lessons to be learned here, but as the new 787s and A350s enter the market, new, longer haul operations are developing. Norwegian, Air Canada rouge,, Lufthansa’s planned realignment of its Eurowings subsidiary are each likely to stretch the boundaries. But many still doubt the viability of such services. This panel explores whether regulatory, labour and operational factors will constrain growth in this segment – or whether it is a transformational addition to the industry.
• Is LHLCC in fact a new airline type?
• What are the pre-conditions for LHLCC entry and success?
• Are others planning LHLCC services – independent and as FSC subsidiaries?  And can they become profitable?

Moderator: European Aviation Club, Chairman, Rigas Doganis
Panellists:
 airBaltic, CEO, Martin Gauss
 Dublin Airport, Managing Director, Vincent Harrison
 ELFAA, Secretary General, John Hanlon
 Pegasus, CCO, Guliz Ozturk
Barriers to entry and regulatory red tape have not stopped entrepreneurs and innovative organisations from shaking up numerous industries. Irreversible change is also coming to Aviation & Travel. From ownership structures such as the cross-border JV, to LCC subsidiaries and new mobile and distribution technologies entering the supply chain, Aviation & Travel is being disrupted.
• What’s coming around the corner (and what’s already arrived) that will reshape aviation and travel as we know it?
• Will disruption come from within the aviation and travel industry, or be forced upon it from outside?
• Who will be the winners and who will be the losers?

Moderator: MW Travel Consultancy, Principal, Martin Warner
Panellists
 CarTrawler, Chief Technology Officer, Bobby Healy
 Concur, Senior Director Strategy, Johnny Thorsen
 Ryanair, CCO, David O'Brien
 Travelport, Global Head of Product & Marketing, Air Commerce, Ian Heywood
It’s boom times again for airlines as fuel prices retreat, but do we risk another ‘Money for Nothin’” cycle in industrial relations? Now may be the time for corporations to take some short-term pain to lock in the productivity gains for the inevitable return of tougher times. But will labour groups share a long-term view? In this blockbuster closing session, panellist will debate these issues and discuss other key issues:
• Are Industrial Relations laws standing in the way of productivity gains in the aviation sector?
• How sophisticated are the aviation corporations in their approach to bargaining?
• How to achieve a consistent strategy across multiple labour groups to provide maximum efficiency? Moderator: European Aviation Club, Chairman, Rigas Doganis Panellists:  ALPA, Executive Administrator, Captain Rick Dominguez  Finavia, CEO, Kari Savolainen  Finnair, SVP Human Resources, Eija Hakakari  IFALPA, President, Martin Chalk  International Transport Workers' Federation (ITF), Section Secretary, Gabriel Mocho Rodriguez  PrivatAir, President and Executive Chairman, Greg Thomas
Air China VP and GM for North America Zhihang Chi discusses the carrier’s recent expansion in North America and opportunities for further growth. Air China launched Houston on 1-Jul-2015 and Montreal on 29-Sep-2015. The Chinese flag carrier is launching Newark on 26-Oct-2015, giving it nine North American gateways, and also has been adding capacity to most of its existing destinations. Air China would like to see a more liberal air services agreement with the US and the abolition of the US transit visa requirement. The latter would enable Air China to serve Latin America via the US. Air China currently serves Sao Paulo with two weekly flights via Madrid and is keen to expand in Latin America.

IndiGo was selected by the judging panel to for its ability to thrive in an extremely challenging market. The judges were particularly impressed by the way IndiGo’s executive team have executed their business strategies.

This award is given to the low cost airline that has been the biggest standout strategically, established itself as a leader, been most innovative, and provided a benchmark for others to follow.

“In less than 10 years IndiGo has grown to become India's largest domestic airline with a market share of close to 40%,” Mr Harbison said. “Despite operating in a very challenging market, IndiGo has consistently reported profits for each of the last seven years, including a record profit in FY2015. Over the same period India's airlines combined have lost in excess of USD10 billion.”

CAPA noted that IndiGo is now in the final stages of preparing for an historic initial public offeringwhich is expected to value the airline at about USD4 billion. IndiGo has established a very positive brand reputation for the quality of its service, clean aircraft, innovative F&B packaging and its efficient operating model with the lowest cancellation rate and best on-time performance among the main Indian carriers. IndiGo’s on-time performance and schedule integrity has been an industry benchmark in India since it launched.

Over the last year IndiGo has maintained stability in a challenging market while all its main competitors have faced a crisis. IndiGo is now attracting significant interest from potential foreign airline investors and global alliances.

Athens Airport CEO Yiannis Paraschis was named the CAPA Airport Chief Executive of the Year. A new category established for 2015, this award is given to the airport executive who has demonstrated outstanding strategic thinking and innovative direction for the growth of their business and the industry. Budapest Airport was named CAPA Airport of the Year. This award is given to the airport that has been the biggest standout strategically, established itself as a leader and done the most to advance the progress of the aviation industry.