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CAPA World Aviation Outlook Summit
Berlin, Germany
27-28 Nov 2018
Tuesday 27 November 2018
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08:00
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Registration, Networking & Coffee
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08:45
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Chairman's Welcome
CAPA - Centre for Aviation, Executive Chairman, Peter Harbison |
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SESSION 1
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08:50
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Welcome Address
Federal Ministry of Transport & Digital Infrastructure, Director General of Civil Aviation, Johann Friedrich Colsman |
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09:00
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Community Outlook
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09:05
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Current Market Outlook: A meeting of the minds
Moderator: CAPA - Centre for Aviation, Executive Chairman, Peter Harbison Panel:
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09:20
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CAPA Aviation Outlook
CAPA - Centre for Aviation, Executive Chairman, Peter Harbison [Download Presentation] |
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The global macroeconomic outlook and implications for airline profitability
IATA, Chief Economist, Brian Pearce [Download Presentation] |
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09:40
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OEM Outlook
Airbus Global Market Forecast:
Airbus, SVP Business Analysis & Market Forecast, Bob Lange [Download Presentation] Boeing Commercial Market Outlook: Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Director, Market Forecasting, Wendy Sowers [Download Presentation] |
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10:00
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The outlook for UK-Europe, the trans-Atlantic and open skies: How are airlines preparing for the post-Brexit world?
The UK’s exit from the EU is fast approaching - yet uncertainty remains. The European Commission has maintained that when the UK leaves the EU it will also leave the single aviation market, meaning the UK will have to negotiate a new bilateral air service agreement with the rest of the bloc in order to ensure traffic rights for its airlines. It must also negotiate new bilaterals with 17 non-EU countries where rights are currently granted under EU agreements. The most important of these is a renegotiation of the UK-US deal, which is set to govern the rules of engagement for flights between the two countries across the highly lucrative trans-Atlantic market.
The 3 major JV groupings that operate on the trans-Atlantic depend on open skies for them to gain antitrust immunity to operate in the UK market, the largest premium route. But the extent to which the UK will be restored to open skies once it leaves the EU remains to be seen, with US pilot unions conspicuously vocal in their concerns about some of the liberal provisions of open skies. Aside from labour organisations, EU governments could undo the great strides taken over the years in liberalising international traffic rights, in order to protect their flag carriers from bigger competitors encroaching further on home markets.
Panel:
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10:45
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Air Travel - Engine of Globalisation
Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Chairman & CEO, Carsten Spohr |
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11:10
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CAPA Membership Presentation
CAPA - Centre for Aviation, Head of Sales & Global Partnerships, Rowan Lanser |
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11:15
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Coffee Break & Networking
Hosted by CarTrawler |
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SESSION 2
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11:45
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Keynote
Berlin Brandenburg Airport, CEO, Engelbert Luetke Daldrup [Download Presentation] |
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12:05
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The German market outlook: the more things change, the more they stay the same?
Air Berlin Group’s exit from the German market in Oct-2017 has occurred with minimal disruption, opening up opportunities for existing players, mainly Lufthansa and its subsidiary Eurowings, to grow their seat share. The Group has absorbed much of the capacity once held by the failed carrier, further consolidating its near monopoly hold on the domestic market (easyJet, which also grabbed a share of Air Berlin’s seats, is the only airline that is challenging Lufthansa's domestic dominance in any meaningful way). The group also leads overall German seat capacity by a sizable margin. Through Eurowings, Lufthansa has managed to keep Ryanair and easyJet - who have managed to conquer other markets more successfully - at bay.
While the status quo doesn’t appear to be under threat any time soon, Germany’s four other indigenous airlines are quietly embarking on expansion plans of their own, their collective growth outpacing that of their three larger competitors. Meanwhile, in developments across the border, Ryanair’s proposed 75% stake of LCC Laudamotion, which gives it access to coveted slots in both Austria and Germany, is sure to put the German flag on notice.
On the regulatory front, aviation taxes are presenting major cost implications for the industry, with Germany having one of the highest aviation taxes in the world. Other costs have increased as well, such as aviation security charges, which have risen by 75% since 2011 and will cost airlines around EUR750 million in 2018.
With the market undergoing some dynamic changes and costs increasing, what is the outlook for German aviation and how will the competitive position of the current players evolve?
Moderator: AIRBORNE Consulting, Managing Partner, Gerald Wissel Panel:
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12:50
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Lunch Break & Networking |
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13:50
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Emerging markets outlook: What’s driving growth in Asia, Middle East and Eastern Europe?
Leaders of carriers from the high growth, high potential markets within Asia, Europe and the Middle East share their current commercial and operating challenges and the future outlook for the region’s aviation industry.
Panel:
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SESSION 3
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14:30
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Dynamic Pricing: The Key to Intelligent Retailing Sabre Airline Solutions, Director, Christophe Viatte |
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14:40
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The commercial outlook: What revenue optimisation strategies are airlines pursuing in an increasingly price sensitive global market?
Low fuel prices and new competition have forced airlines to pass on savings directly to consumers, which has led to a surge in supply driven traffic growth as price sensitive travellers take advantage of low fares. But rising oil prices bring into question the sustainability of continued fare decreases, and could temper demand from leisure markets. As airlines adjust to the new operating conditions, they can opt to maintain growth, at the expense of profits, increase fares and dull demand, undertake non fuel cost cutting initiatives or seek alternative revenue optimisation strategies. In the Americas for example, product unbundling and fare families have been adopted by the major carriers to both combat growing LCC competition and capture the leisure market. Likewise in Europe, many full service carriers are segmenting their economy cabins and unbundling their product.
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15:20
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Coffee Break & Networking
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15:50
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Successfully Delivering NDC's 2020 Vision
Travelport, Global Head of Air, Damian Hickey [Download Presentation] |
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16:05
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Distribution outlook: Dawn of a new era? How will airline distribution models evolve as the NDC standard and direct connect channels become commonplace?
Legacy distribution systems have for decades presented airlines with the twin problems of high costs and product commoditisation. In efforts to address these issues, a handful of carriers have invested heavily into establishing their own API channels with agents, while the concurrent push by IATA for airlines to implement the NDC standard has encouraged the industry to adopt a retail focused approach to distribution. In this new modernised distribution landscape, itself reflective of wider consumer expectations around seamlessness and personalisation, new opportunities are emerging for other intermediaries and aggregators such as metasearch companies (some of which now have direct booking capabilities), as well as digital behemoths such as Amazon, Google, and Facebook - to gain a slice of the pie. Meanwhile traditional GDS channels will need to evolve their models to remain relevant as fragmentation becomes the new norm. How does airline.com compete in the era of conversational converse and new mobile, bot and voice technologies? Are there other distribution channels which airlines are underutilising?
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SESSION 4
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16:45
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Demystifying blockchain technology and its potential in aviation
Blockchain has undoubtedly been brought up as an agenda item in plenty of airline boardroom meetings but the lack of real world applications in the aviation industry to date has made it hard for CEOs to understand how the technology is supposed to be used in their business. Lufthansa calls blockchain a “computer without hardware” - a gigantic decentralised database duplicated on multiple computers that allows information to be distributed securely without being copied, manipulated or hacked. For airlines, blockchain enables data to be shared in a more enhanced, risk free manner and promises to reduce complexity, cut costs and improve the traveller experience. It can also be deployed in a wide array of areas within the business from distribution to loyalty to operations and maintenance. This presentation will unpack blockchain technology by providing examples of real and potential uses cases within the aviation sector.
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17:05
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Close of Day 1
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19:00
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Pre-Dinner Drinks
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19:30
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