CAPA World Aviation Outlook Summit

Berlin, Germany
27-28 Nov 2018

Tuesday 27 November 2018

Registration, Networking & Coffee
Chairman's Welcome 
CAPA - Centre for Aviation,  Executive Chairman, Peter Harbison
Welcome Address 
Federal Ministry of Transport & Digital Infrastructure, Director General of Civil Aviation, Johann Friedrich Colsman
Community Outlook
Current Market Outlook: A meeting of the minds

Moderator: CAPA - Centre for Aviation
, Executive Chairman, Peter Harbison
  • Airbus, SVP Business Analysis & Market Forecast, Bob Lange
  • Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Director, Market Forecasting, Wendy Sowers
  • IATA, Chief Economist, Brian Pearce
CAPA Aviation Outlook
CAPA - Centre for Aviation, Executive Chairman, Peter Harbison [Download Presentation]
The global macroeconomic outlook and implications for airline profitability
IATA, Chief Economist, Brian Pearce [Download Presentation]
OEM Outlook
Airbus Global Market Forecast: 
Airbus, SVP Business Analysis & Market Forecast, Bob Lange [Download Presentation]

Boeing Commercial Market Outlook: 
Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Director, Market Forecasting, Wendy Sowers [Download Presentation]
The outlook for UK-Europe, the trans-Atlantic and open skies: How are airlines preparing for the post-Brexit world? 
The UK’s exit from the EU is fast approaching - yet uncertainty remains. The European Commission has maintained that when the UK leaves the EU it will also leave the single aviation market, meaning the UK will have to negotiate a new bilateral air service agreement with the rest of the bloc in order to ensure traffic rights for its airlines. It must also negotiate new bilaterals with 17 non-EU countries where rights are currently granted under EU agreements. The most important of these is a renegotiation of the UK-US deal, which is set to govern the rules of engagement for flights between the two countries across the highly lucrative trans-Atlantic market.

The 3 major JV groupings that operate on the trans-Atlantic depend on open skies for them to gain antitrust immunity to operate in the UK market, the largest premium route. But the extent to which the UK will be restored to open skies once it leaves the EU remains to be seen, with US pilot unions conspicuously vocal in their concerns about some of the liberal provisions of open skies. Aside from labour organisations, EU governments could undo the great strides taken over the years in liberalising international traffic rights, in order to protect their flag carriers from bigger competitors encroaching further on home markets.

  • What issues are involved in the UK renegotiation and what are the positions of the protagonists?
  • Are the region’s airlines at risk of operating under more restrictive norms?
  • Will unions intervene to wind back the provisions of the North Atlantic?
  • What are the prospects for US-UK open skies post Brexit?
  • Could Brexit provide a catalyst to reform the entire bilateral system that underpins aviation governance?
Moderator: John Byerly, Consultant, Consultant, John Byerly 
  • ALPA, Regulatory Counsel & Senior Attorney, David Semanchik
  • Croon Callaghan Aviation Consulting, Partner, Jim Callaghan
  • ERA, Director General, Montserrat Barriga
  • Whitaker Air Space, Principal, Michael Whitaker
Air Travel - Engine of Globalisation
Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Chairman & CEO, Carsten Spohr
CAPA Membership Presentation 
CAPA - Centre for Aviation, Head of Sales & Global Partnerships, Rowan Lanser
Coffee Break & Networking
Hosted by CarTrawler
Berlin Brandenburg Airport, CEO, Engelbert Luetke Daldrup [Download Presentation]
The German market outlook: the more things change, the more they stay the same?
Air Berlin Group’s exit from the German market in Oct-2017 has occurred with minimal disruption, opening up opportunities for existing players, mainly Lufthansa and its subsidiary Eurowings, to grow their seat share. The Group has absorbed much of the capacity once held by the failed carrier, further consolidating its near monopoly hold on the domestic market (easyJet, which also grabbed a share of Air Berlin’s seats, is the only airline that is challenging Lufthansa's domestic dominance in any meaningful way). The group also leads overall German seat capacity by a sizable margin. Through Eurowings, Lufthansa has managed to keep Ryanair and easyJet - who have managed to conquer other markets more successfully - at bay.
While the status quo doesn’t appear to be under threat any time soon, Germany’s four other indigenous airlines are quietly embarking on expansion plans of their own, their collective growth outpacing that of their three larger competitors. Meanwhile, in developments across the border, Ryanair’s proposed 75% stake of LCC Laudamotion, which gives it access to coveted slots in both Austria and Germany, is sure to put the German flag on notice.
On the regulatory front, aviation taxes are presenting major cost implications for the industry, with Germany having one of the highest aviation taxes in the world. Other costs have increased as well, such as aviation security charges, which have risen by 75% since 2011 and will cost airlines around EUR750 million in 2018.
With the market undergoing some dynamic changes and costs increasing, what is the outlook for German aviation and how will the competitive position of the current players evolve?
  • How has the German market evolved one year on from the Air Berlin collapse? 
  • Will LCCs continue to drive growth in the local market? 
  • How are Germany’s other four airlines beyond Lufthansa, Ryanair and easyJet set to grow their share of the market? What role will these operators play in the medium term? 
  • Will labour disputes threaten to erode cost reduction initiatives and disrupt operating conditions? 
  • What has been the impact of aviation taxes and security costs on airlines and airports?
  • Can airports in Europe survive without network carriers as anchor tenants?
  • Self-hubbing, a viable trend? Are modern customers ready to build their own LCC to LCC connections?

Moderator: AIRBORNE Consulting, Managing Partner, Gerald Wissel
  • Berlin Brandenburg Airport, CEO, Engelbert Luetke Daldrup
  • DLR, German Aerospace Center, Director DLR Institute of Air Transport and Airport Research, Johannes Reichmuth
  • Germania, Managing Director, Johannes Klinsmann
  • TUIfly, Director of Communications, Aage Duenhaupt
Lunch Break & Networking
Emerging markets outlook: What’s driving growth in Asia, Middle East and Eastern Europe?
Leaders of carriers from the high growth, high potential markets within Asia, Europe and the Middle East share their current commercial and operating challenges and the future outlook for the region’s aviation industry.
  • What are the implications of rising oil prices and growing trade protectionism for global airlines? 
  • What is the current state of play of JVs and alliances and how effective is it as a mechanism for bolstering network coverage? 
  • How to reconcile the aim of open skies with creating a market for a national airline? Does every country need a state owned/national carrier? 
  • How are incumbent carriers adapting their strategies and business models to compete against new entrant competitors e.g. from LCCs or the new Chinese superconnectors? 
  • Does the intra-SE Asian market suffer from over-competition? Will the market rationalise? 
Moderator: DVB Bank, Managing Director, Vicente Alava Pons
  • AAPA, Director General, Andrew Herdman
  • airBaltic, Chairman of the Board & CEO, Martin Gauss
  • Gulf Air, CEO, Krešimir Kučko
  • LOT Polish Airlines, CEO, Rafał Milczarski
Dynamic Pricing: The Key to Intelligent Retailing
Sabre Airline Solutions, Director, Christophe Viatte
The commercial outlook: What revenue optimisation strategies are airlines pursuing in an increasingly price sensitive global market?
Low fuel prices and new competition have forced airlines to pass on savings directly to consumers, which has led to a surge in supply driven traffic growth as price sensitive travellers take advantage of low fares. But rising oil prices bring into question the sustainability of continued fare decreases, and could temper demand from leisure markets. As airlines adjust to the new operating conditions, they can opt to maintain growth, at the expense of profits, increase fares and dull demand, undertake non fuel cost cutting initiatives or seek alternative revenue optimisation strategies. In the Americas for example, product unbundling and fare families have been adopted by the major carriers to both combat growing LCC competition and capture the leisure market. Likewise in Europe, many full service carriers are segmenting their economy cabins and unbundling their product.

Moderator: Finnair
, Chief Commercial Officer, Juha Jarvinen

  • Amadeus, Head of Revenue Generation Consulting, Michael Kanacher
  • LEVEL, CEO, Vincent Hodder
  • Sabre Airline Solutions, Director, Christophe Viatte
  • Volantio, CEO, Azim Barodawala
Coffee Break & Networking
Successfully Delivering NDC's 2020 Vision
Travelport, Global Head of Air, Damian Hickey [Download Presentation]
Distribution outlook: Dawn of a new era? How will airline distribution models evolve as the NDC standard and direct connect channels become commonplace?
Legacy distribution systems have for decades presented airlines with the twin problems of high costs and product commoditisation. In efforts to address these issues, a handful of carriers have invested heavily into establishing their own API channels with agents, while the concurrent push by IATA for airlines to implement the NDC standard has encouraged the industry to adopt a retail focused approach to distribution. In this new modernised distribution landscape, itself reflective of wider consumer expectations around seamlessness and personalisation, new opportunities are emerging for other intermediaries and aggregators such as metasearch companies (some of which now have direct booking capabilities), as well as digital behemoths such as Amazon, Google, and Facebook - to gain a slice of the pie. Meanwhile traditional GDS channels will need to evolve their models to remain relevant as fragmentation becomes the new norm.

How does airline.com compete in the era of conversational converse and new mobile, bot and voice technologies? Are there other distribution channels which airlines are underutilising?
Is this increasingly fragmented and complex commercial and technological distribution landscape sustainable? How will business models evolve in response? Is there a need for a direct connect aggregator?
Should airlines build lots of direct connects or revert back to lean, centralised distribution channels?
Who is going to be offering services to bridge the gap between airlines/aggregators that are NDC compliant and those that aren’t? Will it be the GDS and IT providers, other airlines or speciality providers?
How are newer intermediaries adding value to airline distribution?

Moderator: PASS Consulting Corporation/PASS Consulting Group, CEO/Head of Business Unit Travel, Michael Strauss

  • Caravelo, Chief Commercial Officer, Jonathan Newman
  • Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Head of Distribution & Revenue Management Strategy & Business Intelligence, Christian Popp
  • Finnair, Chief Commercial Officer, Juha Jarvinen
  • Travelport, Global Head of Air, Damian Hickey
Demystifying blockchain technology and its potential in aviation

Blockchain has undoubtedly been brought up as an agenda item in plenty of airline boardroom meetings but the lack of real world applications in the aviation industry to date has made it hard for CEOs to understand how the technology is supposed to be used in their business.

Lufthansa calls blockchain a “computer without hardware” - a gigantic decentralised database duplicated on multiple computers that allows information to be distributed securely without being copied, manipulated or hacked. For airlines, blockchain enables data to be shared in a more enhanced, risk free manner and promises to reduce complexity, cut costs and improve the traveller experience. It can also be deployed in a wide array of areas within the business from distribution to loyalty to operations and maintenance.

This presentation will unpack blockchain technology by providing examples of real and potential uses cases within the aviation sector.

Winding Tree, Head of Strategy & Partnerships, Dave Montali [Download Presentation]

Close of Day 1
Pre-Dinner Drinks
Hosted by Berlin Brandenburg Airport & Travelport