Frankfurt first destination for Thai Airways A380, which may provide excess capacity

Although Thai has previously said it expected to deploy its A380s to Europe and Australia, the comments from Mr Amranand are the first specific remarks on his carrier's A380 deployment. Thai has six A380s on order.

As CAPA reported in an analysis looking at the decreased short-term outlook at Thai as a result of the recent floods causing forward bookings to decrease:

Thai Airways already operates two daily flights to Frankfurt, London and Sydney. According to Innovata's schedule database, both Frankfurt and London flights are currently operated with B747-400s while the two Sydney flights are now operated with A340-600s. Thai Airways is expected to use the A380 for at least one daily frequency in each market.

If given the choice, Thai Airways would likely not move forward with its A380 order as it would be better off replacing B747-400s and A340s with medium-size widebody aircraft, allowing it to better match capacity with expected medium-term demand while maintaining frequency. But with Thai's A380s already well into the production process, a cancellation of the order is no longer an option.

The ill-timed introduction of the A380s will likely pose a network dilemma for Thai Airways in 2H2012 and 2013. The carrier will have to choose between reducing frequency to Frankfurt, London and Sydney to one daily flight or increasing capacity as the A380 replaces B747s and A340s. Frequency reduction would not be Thai Airways' preference as having two flights in each market are needed for it maintain the connections within Asia and on the kangaroo route that it relies on to fill up its long-haul network. But retaining the existing level of frequencies as the A380s are delivered means increasing capacity at a time when Thai Airways is already struggling to fill up its B747-400s.

Read more: Thai Airways forward bookings and short-term outlook plummet due to Bangkok floods

Such a quandary and possibility of wrong aircraft selection are not new to the region; some place Malaysia Airlines in the same category of having ordered the A380 only to "catch up" to rival Singapore Airlines, even if the aircraft provides too much capacity. Malaysia Airlines, however, has shown itself willing to trade yield for a higher seat count and more revenue. Wrong aircraft selection is not exclusive to A380 operators; as recent B787 cancellations have shown, capacity and fleet needs change.

Thai will configure its A380s in a denser than normal layout of 507 seats: 435 in economy, 60 in business and 12 in first.

A380 operators seat configurations

Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation & airline reports
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