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US value airlines look for inflection point, but uncertainty abounds

Analysis

US value airlines are joining their larger counterparts in believing an inflection point in demand could occur in the back half of 2021 as vaccine distribution and administration becomes more widespread.

Alaska is declaring that it will be moving towards a sizeable restoration of 2019 capacity by the US summer travel season, while JetBlue and Southwest have not offered any projections for that same period. A potential added layer of uncertainty is emerging as reportedly the US government is considering requiring COVID-19 testing for domestic air travel.

For now, those airlines are attempting to drive passenger volume through stimulation, and that scenario is not likely to change anytime soon as pandemic challenges continue to blunt demand in 1Q2021.

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