US economic trends: trade uncertainty=air travel headwinds

The effect of tariffs and trade uncertainty has now become a semi-permanent fixture in economic discourse. And while warnings of negative effects for US consumers in the form of rising prices continue unabated, the immediate economic impact of the onset of tariffs is hard to measure.

For now, travel demand, including corporate demand, appears to be remaining steady in the short term. But pessimism is building for the long term, as many economists believe a recession is in store for the US during 2020.

It seems that more clarity needs to materialise during mid-2019 about the overall economic impact of the tit-for-tat decisions by the US and China to impose tariffs on one another. The US Federal Reserve is also expected to institute three interest rate increases in 2019, which, coupled with trade spats, could dim consumer confidence. Eventually, the coalescing of all those elements could have a trickle-down effect on travel demand.