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15-Jan-2024 11:15 AM

The world’s busiest international routes, domestic routes and airports – observations and insights

Analysis

OAG's annual analysis of route and airport capacity was thrown into turmoil during the COVID-19 pandemic as Guangzhou became the world's busiest airport in 2020, and US airports that mainly handle domestic traffic forced their way into the Top 10 globally.

Even now, as 'normality' is seen steadily to be returning to the business, there are abnormalities, with the busiest route in the US during 2023 being not between, say, New York and Chicago, but between Honolulu and Kahului in Hawaii.

But these things don't happen by chance, there is always a reason.

This short report looks at three categories of OAG's report for 2023 - busiest international routes, busiest domestic routes, and busiest airports (all measured by seat capacity), and the report attempts to throw some light not only on the expected results, but also on the obscure and surprising ones.

Summary
  • OAG publishes annual busiest air routes and airports analysis (capacity-based).
  • Some retain their previous position, but there are newcomers as well.
  • Asia Pacific dominates the international routes.
  • Singapore features in four of the Top 10 international routes, including #1: Kuala Lumpur-Singapore.
  • Asia Pacific also at the top of the domestic routes league but they are well distributed among countries.
  • Tourism plays a major part on some routes, including the busiest domestic one: Seoul Gimpo-Jeju.
  • Atlanta remains the #1 airport by seat capacity, with Dubai in second place.
  • Tokyo climbing back up, while US airports with high domestic capacity are falling back.
  • Overall, there is a demonstrable shift back towards what was considered normal in 2019.

OAG publishes annual busiest air routes and airports analysis (capacity-based)

OAG has published a report from its 2023 'Busiest Routes' analysis that draws attention to the constantly changing nature of air transport supply and demand.

The busiest routes are defined as those with the largest volume of scheduled airline seats in 2023.

Data is for flights in both directions on each route.

Old stagers and newcomers alike

While some historically busy routes continue to occupy the Top 10 'busiest' (as measured by seat capacity, not by actual passengers flown) - such as Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta and Bangkok to/from Singapore; and London-New York - new ones turn up in the table each year.

1. Busiest international routes by seat capacity

Asia Pacific dominates the international busiest routes table; two Middle East routes creep in

Despite the lingering impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Asia Pacific region air travel, it is perhaps of no surprise that Asia Pacific dominates the international table, as it does the domestic one.

Seven of the 10 routes are located in that region, and Singapore figures in four of them, at the expense of Hong Kong (one), where the recovery has taken much longer.

Mainland China, where that revival took longer still, does not figure at all internationally, and only sparsely domestically.

The lack of adequate alternative rail services on high-density travel routes involving Singapore also enters the equation.

On the same theme, London-Paris was a mainstay in this table for many years and right at the top of it, as was Madrid-Barcelona in the Domestic table below; both succumbed to the march of high-speed rail, and doubtless others will in due course.

What is perhaps more surprising is that two Middle East routes are in the Top 10: namely Cairo (CAI) -Jeddah (JED), which occupies the #2 spot, and Dubai (DXB) -Riyadh (RUH).

Cairo, the Egyptian capital, is technically in Africa but is equally attuned to the Middle East.

Most of the routes are short ones, and London-New York by far the longest

Most of the routes are short ones, with the position in the table being determined more by frequencies than by aircraft size.

Typically, they are of 1,000km (625 miles) or less, making them effectively 'commuter routes'. The two exceptions are Seoul to Bangkok, which is 3,726.68km (2,315.65 miles), and the daddy of them all, one which always features in this table - London to New-York, which is 5,570.48km (3,461.34 miles).

Moreover, London-New York is the only intercontinental route in the list (apart from, again technically, Cairo-Jeddah), and stands testament to the enduring claim of those two cities to be the leading financial centres in the world, at least for now.

2. Busiest domestic routes by seat capacity

Distribution of busiest domestic routes is again mainly in Asia Pacific, but not focused on any one country

The distribution of busiest domestic air routes by capacity is equally focused on the Asia Pacific region (nine of the Top 10), but less so is it focused where individual countries are concerned.

Three of them are in Japan, and then one each in Australia, South Korea, Vietnam, China, Indonesia and India.

The outlier is in the Middle East: Jeddah (JED) to Riyadh (RUH).

None to be found in Europe or the Americas; the busiest US route is surprising

There are none in Europe or the Americas, where routes like New York-Boston, New York-Chicago and São Paulo-Rio de Janeiro readily come to mind.

Intriguingly, the busiest domestic route in the US does not involve a big city at all, or is even on the mainland, and could probably never be guessed.

It is Honolulu (HNL) to Kahului (OGG) on Maui Island in Hawaii. That route did not figure at all in 2019 statistics and it is quite possible its elevation is directly connected to the terrible wildfires of Aug-2023, which destroyed the Lahaina community on Maui.

Trailing it, though, are the 'usual suspects', such as Atlanta (ATL) to Orlando (MCO); Las Vegas (LAS) to Los Angeles (LAX), New York (JFK) to Los Angeles (LAX), and Denver (DEN) to Las Vegas (LAS). But none of them are in the global Top 10.

It is quite often the two largest cities in a country that are connected in Asia Pacific: e.g. Hanoi-Ho Chi Minh City; Melbourne-Sydney; Beijing-Shanghai; Jeddah-Riyadh; and Mumbai-Delhi, because business, VFR and leisure travel will all be part of the equation.

Tourist demand plays a major part

But that is not always the case. Tourism plays a significant role as well, and the routes do not always involve a city's principal airport.

The world's busiest domestic air route is between Seoul Gimpo (GMP) - Seoul's secondary airport after Incheon, although it acts as the domestic one for the city - and Jeju (CJU), the airport serving the island of that name that relies on tourism.

Similarly with Jakarta (CGK)-Bali Denpasar (DPS).

Meanwhile, in Japan the busiest routes do not connect Tokyo with Osaka or Nagoya, but with the far-flung Hokkaido Island airport of Sapporo (CTS), and the even further Okinawa (OKA) in the Pacific Ocean.

Of course, the influence of the Bullet Train on the mainland of Japan has to be taken into account, with rapid and frequent connections between Tokyo and the main cities.

OAG also published a table on the busiest airports by seat capacity. The Top 10 Busiest Global Airports in the world are calculated using total airline capacity (domestic and international flights).

3. Busiest airports by seat capacity

There are some similarities and some distinct changes from a table published by CAPA - Centre for Aviation in Jul-2022, halfway into the first COVID-19 pandemic recovery year, and within the report: Busiest airports by seat capacity Jul-2022: World, Europe, International - status quo being restored.

Five US airports in the Top 10 airports, driven by domestic demand, and that partly explains JFK's omission

Today Atlanta (ATL), with 61 million seats in 2023, and Dubai (DXB) retain the positions they had regained in Jul-2022 as #1 and #2 respectively.

Five US airports rank in the Top 10.

Chicago (ORD), Dallas (DFW) and Denver (DEN) both slip down the order as expected. Both had been sustained during the COVID-19 pandemic by domestic traffic that was not as severely affected as international travel elsewhere. However, Los Angeles (LAX) gained one position.

New York's John F Kennedy (JFK) Airport is missing from the table - this is because even though it offers more international connections than any other US airport, its domestic capacity is comparatively low, at 40%. That is one of several reasons why it has never been a hub airport in the same way as are Atlanta (ATL), Chicago O'Hare (ORD) and Dallas Fort Worth (DFW). Or London Heathrow (LHR) for that matter.

Biggest upward climber is Tokyo Haneda

Istanbul Airport (IST) also slipped, yet London Heathrow (LHR), and especially Tokyo Haneda (HND), made gains - the latter rising from eighth to third in the table, again on account of a rapid return to normality in Japan.

Guangzhou Airport (CAN), which astonished the world by being the busiest airport anywhere as measured by passenger throughput in 2020, managed to cling on to its Top 10 capacity ranking. It remains the highest capacity airport in China, although both Beijing (PEK and PKX) and Shanghai (PVG and SHA), among others, have two airports.

A continuing return to what was considered normal in 2019

What this latest table demonstrates is a continuing return to what was considered normal in 2019, with only China missing.

How quickly that will be rectified in 2024 is yet to be determined, along with which airports can break into that exclusive Top 10 club.

Denver (DEN) and Dallas (DFW) can be expected to drop down the table, and eventually out of it, as neither airport has extensive international demand or capacity (6.1% and 16.4% of the total respectively), while other airports with a greater international share continue their recovery.

London Heathrow Airport (LHR) is making strides again following extensive pandemic-related schedule cancellations, but may never progress beyond fourth position again, and Istanbul (IST) has stalled a little after the rapid progress it made during and after the pandemic.

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