The recovery of the mainland China aviation market will be particularly closely watched in 2024

CAPA ANALYST PERSPECTIVE - a new series where CAPA - Centre for Aviation's analyst team provide their personal views on a hot topic facing aviation around the world.

Even though many travel restrictions in mainland China were lifted in early 2023, demand and traffic did not surge back as quickly as many airlines expected. This led to some foreign airlines dialling back the capacity they had allocated to China routes in anticipation of greater gains elsewhere.

Improvement in the Chinese international market will continue in 2024, although a full recovery appears unlikely before the second half of the year at the extreme earliest, and more likely in 2025.

However, traffic data show that China's own airlines have been boosting their international networks as they start once again to see the potential of those foreign markets that just four years earlier were fighting among themselves to secure links to China.

Richard Maslen, Head of Analysis at CAPA - Centre for Aviation shares his viewpoint.