The great Brexit aviation debate. A transition deal is needed to avoid disaster for UK airlines

Sixteen months after the Jun-2016 Brexit referendum, nobody in the UK government or EU can say anything at all about the details of what will happen to aviation after the UK leaves the EU in Mar-2019.

A debate moderated by leading aviation consultant John Byerley at the ACTE-CAPA Global Aviation Summit in Oct-2017 considered whether "Brexit will be a disaster for UK airlines". A range of outcomes is possible, but it will be a disaster if no replacement for the existing traffic rights regime is negotiated before the UK leaves the EU in Mar-2019. It could also be a disaster if the UK's participation in EASA does not continue.

The best possible outcome on market access would be keeping the status quo - an outcome favoured by the large majority of industry stakeholders (although some European legacy airlines expect an opportunity to limit competition from UK airlines).

However, that would appear only to be the best likely outcome, with a lesser result much more likely. It is still impossible to say how a positive outcome can be achieved, given the UK's rejection of the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice and freedom of movement.

Meanwhile, airline planning horizons demand clarity around a year in advance, leaving very little time to negotiate an agreement - with uncertainty the almost inevitable result. A transition deal is the only practical way forward.