Scandinavia-US aviation: SAS is increasingly dominant
SAS Scandinavian Airlines will add Atlanta to its US network in northern summer 2024, but will not resume two routes from secondary Scandinavian cities to New York Newark after launching them in 2023. It only operated the services from Aalborg (Denmark) and Gothenburg (Sweden) from Apr-2023 until the end of Oct-2023.
However, the broader picture for SAS in the market between Scandinavia and the United States is looking fairly solid.
Compared with 2019 - before the COVID-19 pandemic, and before the withdrawal of the low cost competitor Norwegian Air Shuttle from all three Scandinavia-US markets - SAS now has more capacity and a higher seat share.
It has increased its focus on its hub in Copenhagen, making Denmark-US even more dominant in the Scandinavia-US market than it already was.
Norse Atlantic Airways has only partially replaced Norwegian's capacity, and only in Norway-US.
Against this backdrop, the demise of SAS' two Newark routes after just one summer season can be viewed as mere tinkering.
- Denmark-US is the biggest Scandinavia-US market and only one of the three markets above its 2019 capacity.
- Denmark-US has an increasingly dominant share of SAS' Scandinavia-US seats. SAS has eight Denmark-US routes for the northern summer 2024.
- Denmark-US has nine routes for summer 2024 in total, vs 10 in summer 2019, but capacity is up.
- Capacity is down in Sweden-US and Norway-US.
- SAS' seat share is higher compared with 2019 in all three markets - mainly thanks to Norwegian's withdrawal.
- Norse Atlantic has only entered Norway-US, and on a smaller scale than Norwegian.
Denmark-US is the biggest Scandinavia-US market
The biggest country pair in the Scandinavia to US market is Denmark to US, thanks to SAS' main hub at Copenhagen Kastrup.
Scandinavia-US: weekly seats by country pair, Jan-2019 to Jun-2024*
Denmark's importance has grown since the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2019 Denmark-US seat capacity was almost the same as Sweden-US and Norway-US combined.
In 2023 Denmark accounted for approximately one and half times the seat numbers of the other two countries to the US.
Scandinavia-US: annual seats by country pair, 2019 to 2023 and 1H2023 to 1H2024*
This took Denmark's seat share of Scandinavia-US from 48% in 2019 to 62% in 2023.
In the first six months of 2024 Denmark's share of seats is scheduled to grow further, to 73%.
Scandinavia-US: annual seat share by country pair, 2019 to 2023 and 1H2023 to 1H2024*
Denmark-US is the only one of the three markets above its 2019 capacity
Denmark-US capacity was back to 103% of 2019 levels for 2023, whereas total capacity from Scandinavia to the US was at 80% - held back by Norway at 62% and Sweden at just 57%.
In 1H2024 the total Scandinavia-US market is scheduled to be at just 69% of 1H2019 levels, slipping back from where it reached in 2023.
Although Denmark is projected at 107%, Norway is set to be at only 40%, and Sweden at 33%, of 1H2019 seat numbers.
Denmark-US has an increasingly dominant share of SAS' Scandinavia-US seats
The recovery of Denmark-US reflects its importance to SAS, which operates far more capacity in this market than in the other two Scandinavia-US markets.
In 2023, SAS' Denmark-US seat numbers were more than three times its Sweden-US capacity and almost eight times its Norway-US capacity.
Denmark-US represented 56% of SAS' Scandinavia-US seats in 2019. This rose to 70% in 2023, and is scheduled to be 78% in 1H2024.
SAS has eight Denmark-US routes for summer 2024
According to schedules filed with OAG, SAS will operate routes to seven US airports from Denmark in summer 2024, based on data for the week of 17-Jun-2024.
In addition, the route to Atlanta announced by SAS on 16-Jan-2024 (but not yet showing in OAG data) will make eight routes.
Its US destinations, all served from Copenhagen, are New York JFK, New York Newark, Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, Atlanta and Washington Dulles.
SAS will be the sole operator on seven of its eight Denmark-US airport pairs, while Delta Air Lines competes directly on Copenhagen-New York JFK.
In addition, American Airlines is launching a new Copenhagen-Philadelphia service in Jun-2024 as the sole operator.
In the equivalent week of 2019, SAS served five US airports from Copenhagen (the two additions for 2024 are New York JFK and Los Angeles - both served in 2019 by Norwegian).
Denmark-US routes scheduled for week of 17-Jun-2024
|
Rank |
Copenhagen to: |
Seats |
Seats in 2023 |
Operators |
|
1 |
3,553 |
3,367 (5.5 %) |
||
|
2 |
Los Angeles |
2,100 |
2,100 (0.0 %) |
|
|
3 |
2,100 |
942 (122.9 %) |
||
|
4 |
1,995 |
0 (Infinity %) |
||
|
5 |
Chicago O'Hare |
1,848 |
1,848 (0.0 %) |
|
|
6 |
New York Newark Liberty |
1,848 |
2,005 (-7.8 %) |
|
|
7 |
1,848 |
1,848 (0.0 %) |
||
|
8 |
1,848 |
2,100 (-12.0 %) |
||
|
9 |
Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson |
1,834* |
0 (Infinity %) |
Denmark-US: total of nine routes for northern summer 2024 vs 10 in 2019 - but capacity up
However, the total number of routes between Denmark and the US will be down from 10 in Jun-2019 to nine in Jun-2024.
This is because three destinations served by Norwegian in 2019 - Fort Lauderdale, Oakland and Orlando International - are not now served by any airline.
Denmark-US routes, week of 17-Jun-2019
|
Rank |
Copenhagen to: |
Seats |
Seats in 2023 |
Operators |
|
1 |
New York Newark Liberty |
3,318 |
3,073 (8.0 %) |
|
|
2 |
2,789 |
2,796 (-0.3 %) |
||
|
3 |
Chicago O'Hare |
1,848 |
1,715 (7.8 %) |
|
|
4 |
1,829 |
1,829 (0.0 %) |
||
|
5 |
1,810 |
1,056 (71.4 %) |
||
|
6 |
1,715 |
1,715 (0.0 %) |
||
|
7 |
Los Angeles |
926 |
926 (0.0 %) |
|
|
8 |
635 |
635 (0.0 %) |
||
|
9 |
582 |
688 (-15.4 %) |
||
|
10 |
Orlando |
344 |
291 (18.2 %) |
Nevertheless, the discontinued Norwegian routes were very low capacity, and total Denmark-US capacity will be up by 9% in the week of 17-Jun-2024 compared with the week of 17-Jun-2019 - similar to the 7% increase scheduled for 1H2024.
Denmark-US: SAS seat share up from 75% in 2019 to 93% in 2023
SAS' annual share of Denmark-US seats increased from 75% in 2019 to 93% in 2023, and is set to remain at a similar level, 94%, in 1H2024, according to data from CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG.
Norwegian had a 21% seat share in this market in 2019, but its withdrawal has benefited SAS' share.
Delta's share also grew - from 3% in 2019 to 7% in 2023 - but is scheduled to be only 4% in 1H2024.
Denmark-US: seat share by airline, 2019 to 2023 and 1H2023 to 1H2024*
New summer 2024 Copenhagen-Atlanta route announced in Jan-24
As this report was published, as part of SAS' summer programme 2024, the airline confirmed a daily nonstop service to Atlanta from Copenhagen will commence from 17-Jun-2024.
Cargo transportation is expected to play an important role for this route, partly because of its proximity to the Port of Savannah, the largest and fastest-growing container terminal in America.
"Through an agreement with Delta Air Lines, passengers can continue their journey on other Delta-served destinations out of Atlanta. This development means an expanded offering for SAS passengers, who can look forward to reaching several new and exciting destinations across the Southern USA, Caribbean, and Latin America, all conveniently accessible from Atlanta," says SAS President & CEO, Anko van der Werff.
See related report on the announcement from our Aviation Week Network sister channel: SAS To Launch Flights To SkyTeam Hub Atlanta
Sweden-US: SAS to operate one route out of a total of two in summer 2024…
SAS is scheduled to operate just one US route from Sweden in the week of 17-Jun-2024: Stockholm Arlanda to New York Newark, a route operated as a duopoly with Star Alliance partner United Airlines.
This market is also served by Delta on Stockholm to New York JFK, providing competition to SAS and United on the city pair.
Sweden-US routes scheduled for week of 17-Jun-2024
|
Rank |
Stockholm to: |
Seats |
Seats in 2023 |
Operators |
|
1 |
New York Newark Liberty |
3,073 |
3,073 (0.0 %) |
SAS, United Airlines (peak summer) |
|
2 |
1,512 |
1,519 (-0.5 %) |
…versus six routes in total in summer 2019
Five years previously, six US airports were served from Stockholm: the two New York airports plus Los Angeles, Chicago, Oakland, and Fort Lauderdale.
Delta has replaced Norwegian on New York JFK, SAS has discontinued Los Angeles and Chicago, and Norwegian's withdrawal from Oakland and Fort Lauderdale has left them unserved.
Sweden-US routes, week of 17-Jun-2019
|
Rank |
Stockholm to: |
Seats |
Seats in 2023 |
Operators |
|
1 |
New York Newark Liberty |
2,982 |
3,010 (-0.9 %) |
SAS, |
|
2 |
Los Angeles |
2,510 |
2,880 (-12.8 %) |
|
|
3 |
Chicago O'Hare |
1,848 |
1,848 (0.0 %) |
|
|
4 |
1,217 |
1,376 (-11.6 %) |
||
|
5 |
873 |
1,032 (-15.4 %) |
||
|
6 |
582 |
688 (-15.4 %) |
Total Sweden-US capacity will be 46% of the equivalent week of 2019 in the week of 17-Jun-2024.
This is higher than the 33% scheduled for 1H2024, reflecting the greater seasonal importance of the peak summer period in this market.
Sweden-US: SAS seat share up from 64% in 2019 to 74% in 2023
SAS' annual share of Sweden-US seats increased from 64% in 2019 to 74% in 2023 and is set to remain at a similar level, 76%, in 1H2024, according to data from CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG.
This increase mainly reflects the withdrawal of Norwegian, whose share was 32% in 2019.
However, this is partly offset by the entry of Delta, with a share of 19% in 2023 and 17% projected for 1H2024.
United's share has remained in the 5%-8% region.
Sweden-US: seat share by airline, 2019 to 2023 and 1H2023 to 1H2024*
Norway-US: SAS to operate one route out of a total of four in summer 2024…
SAS will only operate one Norway-US in summer 2024, based on schedules for the week of 17-Jun-2024: Oslo to New York Liberty.
The Norway-US market is scheduled to comprise four airport pairs in total in Jun-2024, as Norse Atlantic will serve New York JFK, Miami and Los Angeles from Oslo. All four routes will have just one operator.
Miami is a new route, while Norse Atlantic's other two destinations were previously served by Norwegian.
Norway-US routes scheduled for week of 17-Jun-2024
|
Rank |
Oslo to: |
Seats |
Seats in 2023 |
Operators |
|
1 |
New York Newark Liberty |
1,848 |
1,848 (0.0 %) |
|
|
2 |
1,014 |
1,014 (0.0 %) |
||
|
3 |
676 |
0 (Infinity %) |
||
|
4 |
Los Angeles |
676 |
676 (0.0 %) |
…versus six routes in total in summer 2019
Five years previously, Norwegian also served Fort Lauderdale, Oakland and Orlando.
The total number of Norway-US routes was six at that time.
Norway-US routes, week of 17-Jun-2019
|
Rank |
Oslo to: |
Seats |
Seats in 2023 |
Operators |
|
1 |
New York Newark Liberty |
1,848 |
1,848 (0.0 %) |
|
|
2 |
1,455 |
1,561 (-6.8 %) |
||
|
3 |
582 |
688 (-15.4 %) |
||
|
4 |
Los Angeles |
582 |
688 (-15.4 %) |
|
|
5 |
582 |
582 (0.0 %) |
||
|
6 |
Orlando |
291 |
344 (-15.4 %) |
Total Norway-US capacity will be 79% of the equivalent week of 2019 in the week of 17-Jun-2024 - higher than the 40% scheduled for 1H2024.
As with Sweden-US, this reflects the greater seasonal importance of the peak summer period in this market.
Norway-US: SAS seat share up from 40% in 2019 to 46% in 2023
SAS' annual share of Norway-US seats increased from 40% in 2019 to 46% in 2023 and is set to step up to 65% in 1H2024, according to data from CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG.
In 2019 Norwegian had a 60% seat share in this market, its biggest Scandinavia-US market.
Norway-US: seat share by airline, 2019 to 2023 and 1H2023 to 1H2024*
Norse Atlantic has only partly filled the gap left by Norwegian in Norway-US
The gap left by Norwegian's withdrawal has only partly been filled by Norse Atlantic.
Norse Atlantic entered in Jun-2022, but reduced its schedule significantly for northern summer 2023 and for northern winter 2023/24, compared with 2022/23.
Although the LCC operated for a full year in 2023, compared with just over half a year in 2022, its annual capacity was 8% lower in 2023 than in 2022.
Norse Atlantic's 1H2024 capacity to the US from Norway is scheduled to be 63% lower than in 1H2023.
SAS has grown its dominance in the Scandinavia-US market
SAS' concentration of Scandinavia-US capacity at its Copenhagen hub has been enhanced by the withdrawal of Norwegian at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Whereas the LCCs long haul operations from all three markets previously nudged SAS into operating more point-to-point routes, the airline can now focus on its main hub on the European side of the Atlantic and on its US partner United on the other side.
In addition, SAS has announced a new agreement with Delta, anticipating its eventual move to SkyTeam from the Star Alliance after its equity relationship with Air France-KLM is complete.
See related report: Air France-KLM to take a stake in SAS - another step in airline consolidation
The entry of Norse Atlantic has not replaced Norwegian, particularly if the market is viewed from a Scandinavia-wide perspective.
In the Scandinavia-US market as a whole, SAS' seat share increased from 64% in 2019 to 81% in 2023, and is scheduled to be 88% in 1H2024.
Norwegian had 33% in 2019, while Norse Atlantic's share was only 9% in 2023 and is scheduled to be 4% in 1H2024.
Scandinavia-US: seat share by airline, 2019 to 2023 and 1H2023 to 1H2024*
