Russian aviation: capacity and traffic recovery remains subdued

Russia's government has forecast that the nation's airlines will handle 6.9% fewer passengers in 2024 compared with 2023. The forecast total of 98.1 million passengers for 2024 would be 23.4% below the traffic handled by Russia's airlines in 2019.

Russia led the rest of Europe in the initial recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and showed signs of returning to its old dynamism. Total passenger traffic had expanded by 2.6 times in the decade up to 2019.

However, the situation was altered by the invasion of Ukraine in late Feb-2022.

Since then, the Russian market has lagged Europe in its capacity recovery, with Western sanctions weighing on international traffic and capacity in particular.

The government of Russia is not expecting its airlines to catch up any time soon. Looking ahead to 2027 it forecasts that Russian airlines will carry 98.8 million passengers - barely changed from 2024's figure.