Russia-Ukraine conflict not yet visible in European airline schedules

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is not yet visible in airline capacity data for Europe. Yet many European nations have closed their airspace to Russian operators and Russia has reciprocated by banning airlines from 36 countries. Moreover, virtually no airlines are operating to/from Ukraine.

Nevertheless, data based on schedules filed by airlines indicate that Europe's 27.8% capacity shortfall to 2019 levels in the week of 28-Feb-2022 is 3.2ppts better than last week and the fifth straight week of improvement. This lifts Europe off the bottom of the regional ranking and above Asia Pacific, where capacity is down by 30.3%.

Looking ahead, capacity projections do not appear to reflect the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Europe's capacity for all of 1Q2022 is scheduled at 75% of 2019 levels, rising to 91% for 2Q2022 and 94% in early Aug-2022. Reduced operations in Russia, Ukraine and on Europe-Asia routes over Russia will surely dent these projections. Nevertheless, CAPA analysis suggests that the impact of the conflict on Europe's capacity recovery may be bounded.