Qantas remains bullish on Project Sunrise as it clears an important regulatory hurdle

Project Sunrise has been hit by significant delays, but Qantas is increasingly confident in the latest launch target

Project Sunrise is designed to operate record-breaking flights, initially from Sydney to London and New York, beginning in mid-2026.

Qantas first announced the programme in 2017, meaning that there will be almost a decade-long gap from inception to launch, thanks to a lengthy gestation period and setbacks that were largely out of its control.

Qantas was poised to order modified versions of the Airbus A350-1000 for Project Sunrise in 2020, but the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic forced it to put the plan on ice. Twelve of the aircraft were finally ordered in 2022, with entry into service planned in late 2025, but another delay in Feb-2024 pushed this target back by about six months, into 2026.

The latest hold-up was caused by the European certification process for the modified Airbus A350-1000s.

Airbus included an extra centre fuel tank as part its specification for the long-range version of this aircraft. However, European regulators asked for a redesign of this fuel tank.

The extra fuel tank has now been approved by EASA, Qantas Group CEO Vanessa Hudson has confirmed. This means the airline is "feeling very optimistic about the delivery timetable" for the A350-1000s, Ms Hudson said.

Airbus is also upbeat about progress on Project Sunrise following the fuel tank approval, telling Aviation Week Network: "We are on track for certification of the modifications to the aircraft and first delivery in mid-2026".

Ms Hudson's comments indicate that the airline's enthusiasm for Project Sunrise has not waned, despite the delays and the airline's leadership transition. The project was initiated and enthusiastically backed by Ms Hudson's predecessor, Alan Joyce, who she replaced in Sep-2023.

Qantas remains fully committed to the ambitions plan, and is "very excited" about launching it, Ms Hudson said.

In the meantime, more "economic proof points" about the viability of the Project Sunrise flights are emerging, said Cam Wallace, Qantas CEO for international and freight.

Since the plan was first mooted the airline has added multiple flights of more than 15 hours to either Europe or North America, using Boeing 787-9s, and these are among its best-performing financially, Mr Wallace said.

The airline's flights in the 15-17 hour range are from Perth to London and Rome, from Melbourne to Dallas, and from Auckland to New York. Both of the initial Project Sunrise flights are estimated at 19-20 hours.

The Project Sunrise flights will be complementary to the airline's current network, and incremental to revenue, Mr Wallace said. This indicates they will not siphon too much demand from existing routes.

Qantas is also increasingly optimistic about the "premium-dense" configuration on the Project Sunrise aircraft. Mr Wallace noted that Qantas is experiencing growing demand for premium products on its long haul aircraft, such as Boeing 787-9s and Airbus A380s.

The airline has been using its flight planning system to monitor the proposed Project Sunrise routes and develop data on the optimal tracks based on wind and other factors, Mr Wallace said. The airline is confident that it will be able to develop a flight plan to account for any airspace restrictions that may still exist by the time Project Sunrise launches.

Qantas is also continuing to work with Rolls-Royce on the engine specifications for these aircraft.

Further development of Perth hub will allow more long haul options before Sunrise flights begin

The airline is planning more international medium haul and long haul additions before the launch of the Project Sunrise routes. Some of these will result from a new deal reached between Qantas and Perth Airport on 31-May-2024.

Qantas intends to develop Perth as its second largest international hub, in addition to its main base in Sydney. The airline is due to launch Perth-Paris flights in Jul-2024, and the airline has announced routes from Perth to Johannesburg and Auckland beginning in 2025.

In the longer term, deliveries of additional Boeing 787s and A350s could allow new routes from Perth to destinations in Europe and Africa, Ms Hudson said. And the arrival of long-range Airbus A321XLRs would enable narrowbody flights from Perth to markets such as India, Malaysia, Japan and Singapore.

Like many other airlines, Qantas sees strength in India market, while China travel remains subdued

The airline sees a lot of growth potential in the India market in particular, said Mr Wallace. The airline operates a route from Melbourne to Delhi, and plans to add frequencies on its service between Sydney and Bengaluru. Qantas announced an expansion of its partnership with the Indian airline IndiGo in May-2024.

India currently accounts for just 3% of Qantas' international capacity. But Mr Wallace noted that "the economic fundamentals [in India] are really compelling for us - we're going to invest more in that market".

Not all markets are performing well, however: Qantas decided in May-2024 to suspend its Sydney-Shanghai route, which was its only service to mainland China.

Mr Wallace said a "supply/demand mismatch" had developed in the China market. Since borders reopened after the pandemic, capacity between China and Australia has returned to 100% of 2019 levels, but demand is only running at about 66%, he said.

Project Sunrise has proven to have impressive staying power, both on the drawing board and in public perception

Qantas has attracted a lot of attention due to Project Sunrise, and public interest has not waned, despite the long development time.

While many airline strategies changed dramatically because of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, this is one pre-pandemic concept that has survived.

Ordering the A350-1000s was a major milestone - not just for Project Sunrise, but also because it led to Qantas making a follow-up order for unmodified A350-1000s to use for fleet replacement.

However, there was still a lot of work to do to complete and certify the modifications needed for the longer-range A350-1000s.

Advancement of Project Sunrise is welcome good news for Qantas

Completing a major step towards Project Sunrise is a welcome piece of good news for the airline. It serves as an important reminder that despite its recent controversies, Qantas is still looking at some truly innovative plans, and has not lost sight of its long-term aspirations.

Many details about the flights, including cabin configuration, have already emerged, but there will be more information to be released before the launch date arrives. This will help keep the project in the public eye.

The airline will likely still offer one-stop service from Sydney to London after the nonstop Project Sunrise flights begin. The existing one-stop service to New York may also continue, although in this case it is probably less certain.

The development plans for Perth shows that one-stop options to Europe still figure prominently in the airline's plans.

Qantas Group CEO Vanessa Hudson will be among the speakers at the forthcoming CAPA Airline Leader Summit Australia Pacific 2024 in Brisbane, Australia on 12-13-Sep-2024. CAPA's home event, it is scheduled to gather hundreds of industry leaders and decision makers from across the Asia Pacific and beyond to consider the most significant trends and opportunities of aviation events. While there is still ground still to be covered with the return of international aviation in the Australia Pacific, the region is now putting the final pieces in place for a full recovery of aviation in 2024. Beyond that, the growth outlook is optimistic. However, powerful macroeconomic and geopolitical forces are influencing this outlook and are throwing up questions about the shape of the region in the future. FIND OUT MORE AND REGISTER: CAPA Airline Leader Summit Australia Pacific 2024