Pre-pandemic comparisons are still valid for Asia-Pacific airlines – but not for much longer

CAPA ANALYST PERSPECTIVE - a series where CAPA - Centre for Aviation's analyst team provide their personal views on a hot topic facing aviation around the world.

It is by now a well known trend that the Asia-Pacific traffic and capacity recovery has occurred more slowly than in other regions, particularly on international routes. This indicates that there is greater scope for improvement in this region than elsewhere.

For now, at least, pre-pandemic comparisons are valid, as they show the potential for further growth.

But early 2020, just before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, was four years ago. And the comparable months in 2019 were five years ago.

At some point, year-to-year comparisons will once again become the more important measure of airline progress. Industry leaders have pointed out the same thing - that the pandemic years are becoming less of an indicator of the current state of the industry, with other macroeconomic factors weighing more heavily.

Adrian Schofield, Asia Pacific Chief Analyst at CAPA - Centre for Aviation and Senior Air Transport Editor for Aviation Week Network suggests that while comparisons with 2019 traffic levels are still a useful tool for analysing Asia-Pacific airlines, they are becoming increasingly less relevant as more time passes.

So enjoy the 2019 comparisons while you can, as they may not be seen much beyond this year (2024).