Pandemic’s second wave: risk to Japanese domestic aviation revival

The rebound in domestic travel in Japan has been one of the most impressive in the Asia-Pacific region. However, a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the country is threatening to put the brakes on the pace of recovery.

Japanese domestic capacity has bounced back quickly towards normal pre-COVID levels. Although domestic travel was not shut down to the same degree as in other countries, it was still cut back dramatically by government movement restrictions.

The turning point for the Japan market was when the government removed the country's state of emergency and eased domestic travel restrictions on 19-Jun-2020. This spurred carriers to begin ramping up services again.

But now a second wave of infections - particularly in the key Tokyo market - is causing concerns. The timing is far from ideal, as airlines are looking for Aug-2020 holiday periods to boost demand further. The airlines have decided to ease back on their capacity growth plans for Aug-2020 as bookings dip.

The government has been taking steps to try to keep the domestic travel momentum going with a massive travel promotion, but it has also been forced to dial this effort back somewhat.