Middle East airlines will expand into the US in 2013, further shaking up alliance structures

Gulf airlines will follow up their aggressive 2012 expansion into the US with a number of major new routes in 2013. Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways have both confirmed that they plan to add new US destinations in 2013 and Emirates will most probably join them, as it continues to fill out an already substantial US route network.

In a fast changing alliance scene, partnerships will be a focal point, as Emirates courts American Airlines, which currently partners with Etihad, but whose oneworld alliance is welcoming Qatar Airways. Etihad has a sizeable presence on American's network, but American has few codes on Etihad, making the relationship more one-sided than the two-way Etihad prefers. With Etihad looking for a larger strategic footprint, it may be looking for a new US partner if American cannot deliver.

According to Arab Air Carriers Organisation (AACO) data, just 2.4% of the organisation's airlines' available seats are operated to/from the Americas. That compares with 31.3% of seats into Europe, 18% into Asia and 8.8% into Australasia. However, for the 'Big Three' of Gulf aviation, the lucrative markets in the Americas are taking on increasing importance.

And one thing is certain. The momentum of the Gulf airlines is sufficient now that this US invasion will further shift the global alliance balance.