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LOT Polish Airlines could slip to third among airlines in Poland

Premium Analysis

LOT Polish Airlines expects to handle 10 million passengers in 2023, according to Chief Commercial Officer Michał Fijoł. For the airline this would be an increase of 19% year-on-year after carrying 8.4 million in 2022. Significantly, this would take LOT back to pre-COVID levels of traffic, since it last reached 10 million passengers in 2019.

However, the ultra-LCCs Ryanair and Wizz Air - respectively the biggest and third biggest airlines by seats in Poland (with LOT in second place) - are already above their 2019 capacity levels.

This means that LOT has lost seat share in Poland since before the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, the two LCCs are eroding its share in Warsaw, where LOT is still the leading airline.

Wizz Air has ambitions to replace Ryanair as the largest ultra-LCC in the Warsaw airports system. These two dynamic competitors are set to continue their aggressive growth, while LOT risks slipping from number two to number three in Poland overall.

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