Israel aviation: recovery outlook remains uncertain

Premium Analysis

More than five weeks after the 7-Oct-2023 attacks on Israel by Hamas, the impact of the ensuing conflict on Israel's aviation market has been very substantial. Seat capacity has collapsed from above 2019 levels in Sep-2023 to 28% in the week of 13-Nov-2023, as the majority of international airlines have suspended services to Israel.

Capacity in the overall Middle East market remains above 2019 levels, but has been modestly reduced since Oct-2023.

The impact on global capacity, also above 2019 levels, so far appears insignificant.

Current airline schedules project the recovery of Israel's aviation market in Jan-2023. However, in each passing week recently the time horizon has lengthened – as long as the conflict continues, the timing of any recovery will remain subject to considerable uncertainty.

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