India's evolving global alliance mosaic: Star/SIA-Tata, oneworld/Air India-Qatar; SkyTeam/Jet-Etihad

Breathtakingly rapid changes in India are exposing a whole new panorama of the country's future international airline status. Just over two years ago, Star rejected Air India as a member, and the following year oneworld placed the admission of member-elect, Kingfisher on hold due to the carrier's financial challenges. India's airlines were basket cases and its regulatory constraints promised to keep it that way. Today, thanks to some important (and long overdue) liberalising moves by the government, the country is shaping up as a potentially well balanced centre for each of the major BGAs.

Etihad clearly will have the first mover advantage, with its equity investment in Jet now having received regulatory approval to proceed, along with a substantial increase in seats in the Indian market. Meanwhile though, the long term pickings are so rich that other groups can no longer ignore the pressure to make a move.

All that is needed now is for India to remove its "5/20 rule" on international operations and - astonishingly - the country could leap from international dysfunctionality to commercial coherence in one bound. The impact for the national economy would be enormous.

But - there are one or two more barriers to be cleared. In India there always are. Perhaps this time the government will get it right, but don't bet on it just yet. And, although the alliances may be interested, they will remain wary of Indian pitfalls.