Further reputational damage to the 737 MAX family will concern many Asia-Pacific airlines
The latest Boeing 737 MAX headlines are once again shining a spotlight on an aircraft type that has become increasingly important to several Asia-Pacific airlines - and also plays a key role in their long term fleet strategies.
The loss of a door plug section on an Alaska Airlines 737-9 flight on 5-Jan-2024, and subsequent discoveries of potential manufacturing slips, have put the 737 MAX back in the public eye for the wrong reasons.
This was just what the MAX programme did not need, after making great strides in rehabilitating public perception following the fatal crashes in 2018 and 2019 that caused a long term grounding of the type.
It must be noted that the current issues have only been linked to the 737-9 variant, on certain configurations. But the travelling public may well not distinguish between MAX or 737 variants.
There is also still much more information to come as investigations continue, so it is unclear what further regulatory action might arise.
Another caveat is that there are very few MAX-9s operated by Asia-Pacific airlines. However, this is still a timely point to take a snapshot look at the growth of the overall MAX fleet in the region.
- There are now 34 operators of 737 MAXs in Asia-Pacific, with most in Northeast Asia.
- The number of MAX family aircraft in service in the region has reached 211.
- Airbus has a 55.4% share of Asia-Pacific narrowbody orders, and Boeing has 31.6%.
- The Asia-Pacific region accounts for nearly 45% of global narrowbody aircraft orders.
The Asia-Pacific 737 MAX fleet has been growing steadily since the previous groundings ended
There appears to be only one operator of the -9 MAX variant in the Asia-Pacific region. Lion Air has three of these aircraft in operation, although they are not configured with the mid-cabin door plug section.
Many airlines in the region are operating the more popular -8 version, however. The CAPA - Centre for Aviation Fleet Database shows that there are 34 companies flying 737 MAXs, including all types of operator.
There are 21 operators in Northeast Asia, six in Southeast Asia, four in South Asia, and three in the Southwest Pacific.
The chart below shows how the number of MAX aircraft in Asia-Pacific had reached 134 by Feb-2019, before swiftly dropping to zero due to the grounding of the type.
Operational numbers started growing again from around the third quarter of 2021, as various authorities approved the MAX return to service. Although of course, their reactivation was also affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
There are now 211 MAX aircraft in service in the region, thanks to aircraft returning to service and new deliveries.
MAX aircraft (all models) in service with Asia-Pacific airlines
Airbus A320neo family leads Boeing's MAX in terms of Asia-Pacific orders
Airbus currently has an edge over Boeing with in-service narrowbody aircraft in the Asia-Pacific region.
The chart below shows that Airbus accounts for 57.2% of the region's narrowbodies, and Boeing 42.5%.
Asia-Pacific in-service narrowbody aircraft, by manufacturer
The next chart shows that the Airbus dominance is set to continue.
The European manufacturer accounts for 3,298 - or 55.4% - of Asia-Pacific narrowbody orders, and Boeing has 1,878 narrowbody orders, for a 31.6% share.
Asia-Pacific narrowbody orders, by manufacturer
Asia-Pacific region is a crucial narrowbody market for the major manufacturers
Gaining market share with the 737 MAX is particularly important in the Asia-Pacific region.
The chart below shows that Asia-Pacific already has the largest narrowbody fleet compared to other regions, and there are still major replacement order opportunities to be contested.
Current narrowbody fleet in service, by region
The Asia-Pacific narrowbody market is poised to increase its lead even further, as it accounts for 44.9% of global orders - significantly ahead of Europe and North America.
Current narrowbody order share, by region
The main challenge for Boeing and MAX operators could be public perception
There is still much to be determined about the scope of the door plug issue, and the potential regulatory ramifications for both Boeing and the airlines.
If the issue does remain confined to a highly specific area in a subset of MAX 9s, it may transpire that it is relatively quickly addressed.
However, the more problematic factor could be reputational damage to the MAX family overall.
Being the butt of jokes by cartoonists and late-night comedians is not a place Boeing or MAX operators want to be in again.
It certainly will not help the manufacturer as it seeks to increase its share in the massive Asia-Pacific narrowbody market.
