Europe's winter traffic <25% of last year. Expect airline bankruptcies
After nine successive weeks of progressively worse year-on-year declines, Europe now has the deepest capacity cut of all world regions.
Seat numbers have been cut by -63.4% in the week commencing 19-Oct-2020. Middle East, previously occupying last place, now moves above Europe with a -62.8% cut, while Africa is -59.1%, Latin America -57.8%, North America -52.1% and Asia Pacific is -39.2%.
Ryanair, Europe's biggest airline, has cut its winter capacity plan from 60% to 40% of 2019 levels. EUROCONTROL DG Eamonn Brennan told CAPA Live October that he expected air traffic movements in Europe at 40% of last year's this winter, which suggests a lower figure for seat capacity (since long haul flights, with more seats, have been cut more heavily than short haul).
The EU's 'traffic light' approach to travel restrictions does not seem likely to alleviate the outlook to any meaningful degree. With Europe's aircraft perhaps only half full on average, passenger numbers could fall short of 25% of prior year traffic, pushing revenue even lower.
Expect European airline bankruptcies by the end of this winter.
Become a CAPA Member to access Analysis Reports
Our Analysis Reports are only available to CAPA Members. CAPA Membership provides exclusive access to in-depth insights on the latest developments in the aviation and travel industry, developed by our team of dedicated analysts located in Europe, North America, Asia and Australia.
Each report offers a fresh perspective on the latest industry trends and is available online or via the CAPA mobile app, with customisable alerts to help you stay informed and identify new business opportunities.
CAPA Membership also provides access to our full suite of tools, including a tailored selection of more than 400 News Briefs every weekday and comprehensive data and analysis on thousands of companies around the world.