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Europe's aviation recovery slips as EUROCONTROL trims flights forecast

Analysis

Europe's aviation capacity recovery has lost some momentum this week, but the gradual return to 2019's weekly seat numbers has never been a straight line improvement.

Moreover, EUROCONTROL has lowered its 2022 base scenario forecast of flight numbers in Europe's airspace from 89% of 2019 levels to 85%. This reflects the impact of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 since its previous forecast in Oct-2021. Its base scenario forecast of 85% in 2023 and 99% in 2024 are each reductions of 1ppt from its Oct-2021 forecast.

Europe's seat capacity has reached 85.6% of 2019 levels in the week commencing 6-Jun-2022, or a shortfall of 14.4% compared with the equivalent week 2019. This is 1.9 ppts worse than last week, which had been its best performance on this measure since before the COVID-19 crisis.

Europe remains fourth in the regional ranking, above Asia Pacific, where capacity is down by -27.8%, and the Middle East, where capacity is down by -21.5%. Africa capacity is down by -12.8%, North America is down by -8.3%, and Latin America by -4.3%.

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