Europe’s airlines face Jun-2026 jet fuel shortages if Strait of Hormuz stays closed
In spite of the extension of the US-Iran ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz has not reopened (at the time of writing on 22-Apr-2026). Moreover, the US continues to blockade Iranian ports and Iran has attacked cargo ships in the Strait. Brent crude oil is back above USD100/barrel and jet fuel remains more than double its mid Jan-2026 price.
The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz sharpens the focus on the risk of jet fuel shortages this summer in Europe, the biggest importer of aviation fuel from the Middle East.
Jet fuel stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refinery hub fell to a six year low in mid Apr-2026. ARA is key to jet fuel supply across much of northwest Europe, a region that typically sources half of its jet fuel imports through the Strait.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Europe's 2025 year-end jet fuel stocks were equivalent to 37 days of demand, not an unusual level.
Stocks have fallen since then, although supplies for Apr-2026 and May-2026 appear safe. However, if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed and sufficient alternative supplies are not secured, Europe's airlines risk fuel shortages by Jun-2026.
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