European aviation: Ryanair expects 10-20% jump in air fares in Europe, but it’s complicated
Ryanair group CEO Michael O'Leary has predicted that air fares in Europe could increase by 10-20% over the next 12 months, "potentially the biggest fare increase in European history". The reason, said Mr O'Leary, is high jet fuel prices and lower fuel hedging rates going into next year.
In 2026 so far, the impact of higher fuel prices on air fares has been relatively mild.
Jet fuel prices are averaging around USD150 per barrel in 2026 year to date, an increase of 67% compared with the 2025 average of USD90. By contrast, the price of passenger transport by air is up by only 2% in the EU and is just below flat (-0.7%) in the UK (as of Sep-2026).
Fuel prices can undoubtedly affect air fares, but a range of other factors also come into the equation. These include economics, geopolitics, the balance of supply and demand in the airline industry and details of each airline's fuel hedging.
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