European aviation recovery reaches new high, but lags other regions

European aviation has recovered both capacity and passenger numbers throughout 2Q2021. Seat capacity in Europe is 53.0% below 2019 in the week commencing 21-Jun-2021, compared with a reduction of 70.6% in the first week of the quarter. Europe is now closer to 2019 capacity than at any time since Mar-2020.

However, this result remains weaker than the other regions, even though the gap is narrowing.

Middle East seat capacity is down by 51.6% versus 2019, while Africa is down by 40.9%, Asia Pacific by 39.6%, Latin America by 34.7%, and North America by 26.3%.

Europe's passenger traffic trend has also improved, although with a gap of approximately 8ppts behind capacity. In early Jun-2021 European airport traffic was 67% below 2019 levels (source: ACI Europe), but this compares with US traffic being just 28% below 2019 (source: US Transportation Security Administration).

Europe has higher vaccination rates than most regions apart from North America, but its reliance on international markets is weighing on its recovery. A better synchronised approach between states to reopening international travel in Europe could improve this.