European aviation. International travel restrictions ease; more needed

The prospects for the third quarter, the most important for European airline revenue, look better in 2021 than in 2020. Forward bookings are up and 3Q2021 seat numbers are planned at 70% of 3Q2019, compared with 3Q2020 at 39%.

Europe's capacity recovery continues in the week commencing 12-Jul-2021, but is not yet at the 70% of 2019 scheduled for 3Q. Seat numbers are 40.7% below the equivalent week of 2019, after -42.7% last week. This is above 50% of pre-pandemic levels for a third successive week.

After eight months as the worst performing region on this measure, Europe has now had three weeks above the Middle East, where seat capacity is down by 45.4% versus 2019. This week (week commencing 12-Jul-2021), Asia Pacific is down by 38.7%, Africa by 38.1%, Latin America by 30.3%, and North America by 23.9%.

The further relaxation of international travel restrictions will determine the pace of the recovery as 3Q2021 unfolds. There has been recent progress, both in the EU and the UK, but more is needed to restore international travel in full.