European airlines and the Middle East: Strategic exposure amid escalating geopolitical risk

The US-Israeli air attacks on Iran, launched on 28-Feb-2026, and subsequent attacks by Iran on a range of targets across the Middle East has consequences for commercial aviation in Europe.

The region is the biggest intercontinental region by seats from Europe and the second biggest (after North America) by ASKs. European airline exposure to the Middle East is nevertheless fairly low as a percentage of total capacity.

However, the conflict is likely to have a number of impacts on European airlines. These include the closure of airspace and the suspension of flights to many Middle East countries and a possible lasting impact beyond the conflict if sentiment towards air travel remains more cautious.

In addition, oil prices (and fuel costs) are rising and there will be longer flights on some Europe-Asia routes that overfly the Middle East.

There may also be some positive effects on bookings on direct Europe-Asia routes where Middle East hub connections are suspended and on air cargo prices.