Europe aviation capacity outlook: growth to slow in 2Q as air fares soften and geopolitics loom

Until now, CAPA - Centre for Aviation's quarterly analysis of the capacity outlook for European aviation airlines has focused on the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, expressing seat numbers as a percentage of the equivalent period of 2019.

However, with both capacity and traffic above 2019 levels for the past four quarters, analysis will now return to the more traditional metric of year-on-year growth.

Europe capacity growth is projected to slow from 6% in 1Q2025 to 4% in 2Q2025, but with faster growth in intercontinental than in markets intra-Europe.

Europe RPKs have been above 2019 levels since Jan-2024, and load factor is growing.

LCCs have recovered particularly strongly, and their seat share continues to increase in Europe.

Recent commentary from Europe's biggest airlines has mainly been positive on the outlook for summer 2025.

However, there are some notes of caution: air fare inflation has softened in the EU, and turned negative in the UK in recent months.

Moreover, global geopolitical uncertainties are growing.