EU waives airport slot rule as O'Leary predicts winter "write-off"

EU Transport Commissioner Adina Vălean has articulated what is common knowledge about airline demand in Europe: "Air traffic levels remain low, and more importantly, they are not likely to recover in the near future".

She is not alone in her gloomy assessment. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary has reportedly predicted that the coming winter will be a "write-off".

Meanwhile, the summer slide in European capacity continues. The year-on-year cut of -59.2% in Europe's total seat numbers in the week commencing 14-Sep-2020 is the fourth consecutive week of deepening cuts. Sep-2020 capacity is projected to slip to 42% of 2019 levels, from 45% in Aug-2020.

Europe's cut is deeper than North America's -56.3% and Asia Pacific's -40.2%. Latin America once again has the deepest cut, at -66.2%, followed by the Middle East at -63.1% and Africa at-62.7%.

Winter 2020/2021 schedules currently project European capacity at well over 80% of last winter, far exceeding likely demand. The European Commission's 14-Sep-2020 decision to extend the waiver of the rule requiring airlines to use 80% of their slots into winter 2020/2021 should lead to more realistic schedules.