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China’s international travel is still down overall, with wide variance between markets

Analysis

The pace of China's international capacity recovery has remained slow this year, particularly in the US-China market, where tight limits on flights are constraining growth.

China took a relatively conservative approach to opening its borders after the COVID-19 pandemic, which meant that its international capacity rebound trailed most other countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

Although China largely removed its travel restrictions in 2023, economic conditions are now playing a major role in dampening demand for Chinese outbound travel.

Meanwhile, Chinese domestic demand is booming, and there has likely been a slight shift in leisure travel from international to domestic since the COVID pandemic.

Recovery rates on China's international routes vary. Its three largest international markets, which are also in Asia, have returned to 70-80% of pre-pandemic levels.

The US was China's most significant long haul market in 2019, but it has slipped down the list thanks to a capacity recovery in this market of just 25%.

In this case, US government policies are limiting the number of flights Chinese airlines can operate between the two countries.

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