Charting Trends: Intra-African connectivity grows back above two million weekly seats
They say 'a picture paints a thousand words'.
In this new regular report CAPA - Centre for Aviation provides an insight on latest industry trends, using data from its extensive databases.
Looking at latest capacity trends, fleet changes, interior innovations or latest airline and airport developments, the 'Charting Trends' report will offer a weekly observation on air travel.
This week we consider air connectivity within Africa.
- Intra-African air connectivity surpassed two million weekly seats in late 2023, marking a significant milestone.
- Ethiopian Airlines maintains dominance in the Intra-African market with a 14.4% capacity share.
- AFRAA emphasizes the importance of collaboration and sustainable growth in Africa's aviation industry.
- Africa presents vast potential for aviation development, but faces challenges due to government strategies and protectionism.
- Despite the potential for growth, regulatory progress and expansion of LCC operations in Africa remain key areas of focus.
- The outlook for African aviation in 2024 shows promise, with hopes for real progress and increased connectivity.
Intra-African connectivity passes two million weekly seat milestone… again!
Intra-African air connectivity was down -0.6% on pre-pandemic levels for the week commencing 15-Jan-2024, according to data from CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG.
But that is not a fair observation on a market that has so much potential for future growth.
A closer look at OAG flight schedules and CAPA - Centre for Aviation aircraft configuration data reveals that late 2023 proved a key period for African air travel, when it exceeded the two million weekly internal seats figure in the week commencing 18-Dec-2023.
This was only the sixth time that landmark had been exceeded: the previous times were a consecutive five-week period between the weeks of 09-Dec-2019 and 06-Jan-2020, when a record of 2.04 million was achieved in the week commencing 16-Dec-2019.
Intra-African air connectivity (Sep-2011 - Feb-2024)
December is a peak travel month in the Intra-African calendar, and capacity levels will decline over the remainder of 1Q2024, following historical trends. It may be premature to start looking ahead to the end of 2024, but there is the potential for 2024 to break the record for intra-African connectivity.
Ethiopian Airlines dominates - unlikely that others take podium positions
Ethiopian Airlines is the dominant airline in the Intra-African market, with a 14.4% share of capacity in the week commencing 15-Jan-2024 - up 11.0% on the comparable week in 2023.
Ethiopian is in a commanding position, as no other airline has a double digit share of capacity, its closest rival being South Africa's FlySafair (9.0%). This is ahead of Nigeria's Air Peace (5.4%), the fast-expanding regional airline Airlink (South Africa) (4.9%), and the other leading international airlines in the continent: EgyptAir (4.4%), Kenya Airways (4.2%) and Royal Air Maroc (3.7%).
AFRAA: 'Better Skies for Africa remains the pillar of all our actions'
Mr Abdérahmane Berthé, Secretary General of AFRAA - Africa's trade association of airlines from the member states of the African Union (AU) - says that there is a determination to overcome the challenges facing the air transport industry, to support the post-COVID resumption, and to foster a resilient air transport system in Africa.
"As our industry has almost recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, it provides an opportunity for cooperation and collaboration to develop a sustainable perspective for the airline industry. At AFRAA, we will keep our mission to promote and serve African airlines and champion Africa's aviation industry", he stated.
"Better Skies for Africa remains the pillar of all our actions", Mr Berthé adds.
Africa remains a market of huge potential, but there are even larger challenges
Africa represents the last frontier for aviation development, but impotent government transport strategies and ongoing protectionism practices have continued to limit its success. There is a mild hope of regulatory progress, while perhaps the greatest optimism attaches to some very persistent attempts to expand LCC operations in the region.
However, as CAPA - Centre for Aviation's Head of Analysis, Richard Maslen, highlighted in the Oct-2023 Analyst Perspective Out of Africa - will things ever change?: "There are only so many times it is possible to highlight the prospects for growth in aviation across the African continent while still maintaining enthusiasm that the huge potential can be realised".
He says: "The outlook for the future appears for mostly more of the same, but with some glimmers of hope".
Will 2024 be the year for real progress? Time will tell!