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Cebu Pacific poised for further Philippine domestic market share gains in 2014. Is 60% achievable?

Analysis

Philippine low-cost carrier Cebu Pacific Air is planning further domestic expansion in 2014 using a combination of organic growth and flights operated by its newly acquired subsidiary Tigerair Philippines. The expansion could see the group's share of the Philippine domestic market, which in 2013 reached 50% for the first time, approach 60%.

Cebu Pacific expects to grow domestic capacity by 9% in 2014, roughly matching the growth from 2013. The expansion comes despite Cebu Pacific reducing the size of its narrowbody fleet as a result of the anticipated transfer of four A320 family aircraft to Tigerair Philippines. Under Cebu Pacific, Tigerair Philippines will remain a separate operation but will return its current fleet of five aircraft to the Tigerair Group.

Cebu Pacific will further build on its already leading 50% share of the market as it takes over Tigerair's 5% share while also continuing to expand the Cebu Pacific operation. But the share of the market it will ultimately secure in 2014 will partially hinge on the response of its two remaining competitors, the Philippine Airlines (PAL) and AirAsia groups.

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