CAPA: 80% recovery in domestic New Zealand airline capacity by end-2020

New Zealand - the world's 30th largest domestic aviation market globally before the COVID-19 crisis - is expected to recover to just under 80% of its prior capacity levels by the end of 2020, according to a new CAPA projection.

Domestic seat numbers are expected to reach close to 40% of 2019 levels this month as national restrictions are eased (under Alert Level 1), and then to rise gradually to approximately 60% of 2019 levels by early October.

The projection is contained in CAPA's New Zealand Air Capacity Model, which provides a breakdown of each nation's domestic and international outlook for seat capacity powered by OAG - as well as each city and route pair - based on the 2019 actuals.

Combined with government statements, airline network announcements and capacity projections, the model provides a robust and granular guide for future air capacity projection. Using assumptions around 6 key phases - Zero/Grounded, Skeleton, Acutely Restricted, Basic, Restrained and Standard - users can track the pace of recovery in their relevant market.