Brexit and aviation: all's well that ends. Well, almost...

The trade agreement agreed between the UK and the EU on 24-Dec-2020 came into force on 31-Dec-2020, four and a half years after the UK voted for Brexit. It runs to 1,449 pages, of which 26 deal with aviation.

Brexit was never about improving the European aviation system, but there were major concerns that the existing conditions would be seriously eroded. These have mostly been avoided, even if the outcome is less than optimal.

Compared with the situation where the UK was a member of the European single market, the new agreement represents an unprecedented reversal of liberalisation in aviation. There are wrinkles to be ironed out on the subject of airline ownership and control, causing some airlines to go through unnecessary contortions, and there is at least some risk of divergence over time in areas such as aviation safety and consumer protection.

Nevertheless, compared with old-style bilateral agreements - and certainly compared with the threat of 'no deal' - it is still a pretty liberal agreement that preserves the regulatory status quo as much as possible without actually keeping the UK in Europe's single aviation market. The main impact is likely to be felt indirectly through Brexit's economic impact.

For now, however, that is masked by the impact of the COVID-19 crisis.