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American concludes currency and capacity headwinds mask still strong underlying demand

Analysis

The same pressures plaguing it US global network rivals Delta and United are also creating challenges for American Airlines in 2Q2015 as it is projecting a similar passenger unit revenue decline to United of 4% to 6%.

Similar to United, American recently refined its 2015 capacity targets by a half a percentage point as supply-demand imbalance has become a short-term mainstay in most of its markets. And like United, American believes 2Q2015 should be the low point for passenger unit revenue degradation in 2015.

For the moment US airlines are weathering unit revenue decline in part through lower fuel costs. But at some point energy expense will inevitably rise, and a rebound in unit revenues will be necessary to continue the industry's sustained profitability.

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