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All Nippon Airways expands internationally, Japan Airlines slowly

Japan's flagship airlines are investing heavily in their international networks. Combined, they have allocated USD10.7 billion of capital expenditure over the next three years to acquire new aircraft for growth and replacement.

Yet the details have surprises. ANA will step up growth (11.5% CAGR for international ASKs) despite investor pressure to slow capacity expansion to improve profits and margins instead. ANA flies more than JAL, but JAL's profits are higher.

ANA and, especially, JAL are under investor pressure to spend their cash piles.

JAL is planning more conservative 7% international ASK CAGR. JAL will become the size of today's ANA while ANA will surpass the peak size that JAL reached before its bankruptcy restructuring. In 2020 Tokyo Haneda's slot expansion will bring strategic benefits, but also short/medium term overcapacity and pressure on yields and profitability.

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