Air travel: vaccinations and confidence the key to recovery

Confidence is everything, especially in the recovery phase of a pandemic. Where confidence is returning, so are traveller bookings - and such confidence seems highly correlated to areas that have a combination of (a) an effective vaccine rollout and (b) (predictably) low restrictions or barriers to travel.

The US domestic market is one such location. Air passenger volumes in the US are now down just 20% on 2019 levels, having crossed the important 2-million-per-day threshold in last month continuing the strong momentum since May-2021.

But yields in most cases remain substantially lower than 2019 levels, although they are trending upwards. A key indicator will be once the traditional business travel season returns in the US in Sep-2021.