Narrowbody Long Haul: Airbus & Boeing’s airline growth market

Summary

• Narrowbodies account for 10% of all long haul seats (34% of low cost long haul seats). Boeing has 71.5% of narrowbody long haul seats
• US airlines have 41% of narrowbody long haul seats, led by Alaska Airlines and the big three (United, American and Delta), driven by the domestic market
• Copa, Norwegian and WestJet are the leading non-US narrowbody long haul airlines
• 737 MAX 8 operates the longest narrowbody routes, but A321neoLR has greater range and capacity. Long haul missions are targeted for -neoLR orders

Narrowbodies account for 10% of all long haul seats (34% of low cost long haul seats)
There are 202 airlines operating scheduled routes of more than 4,000km, with 35,915 one-way frequencies and 10.2 million seats (OAG Schedules Analyser Nov-2018).
More than half of these airlines, 115 of them, deploy narrowbodies on these long haul routes. However, narrowbodies have a much lower share of long haul frequencies (6,051 or 16.8%) and seats (1.0 million or 10.1%).
Narrowbody long haul is more popular among LCCs. There are 30 low cost airlines operating routes of more than 4,000km, operating 610,000 seats.
More than two thirds of these LCCs, 21 of them, operate narrowbodies on long haul. They have 208,000 narrowbody seats on these routes (34.1% of the long haul low cost total).
Boeing aircraft have 71.5% of narrowbody long haul seats
Boeing's strong seat share - 71.5% of narrowbody long haul capacity in operation - reflects its longer history and the fact that it has two narrowbody families, the 737 and the 757, compared with Airbus' one - the A320 family.
The 757 was historically the first of the currently operated narrowbody aircraft to establish itself on long haul, and the 737 MAX has had a head start on the A320neo family, further boosting the already superior seat share of the 737NG range over the A320ceo family.
US airlines have 41% of narrowbody long haul seats, led by Alaska Airlines and the big three US airlines.
US airlines dominate the upper ranks of the list of the world's biggest operators of narrowbody seats on routes of more than 4,000km.
At number one is Alaska Airlines, which operates 11.5% of global narrowbody long haul seats in the week of 12-Nov-2018, according to data from OAG Schedules Analyser. Alaska Airlines only operates narrowbody aircraft.
It is followed by two of the US big three airlines: United, with a 9.0% seat share, and American, with 7.2%. At five and six are two more US airlines: the third member of the big three, Delta, and JetBlue, which is the biggest LCC in the list.
Together with Hawaiian Airlines (number 14 with 1.5%), US airlines have 41.2% of all narrowbody long haul seats. The high share of US operators is mainly based on their domestic market - which, some would argue, is not really what is meant by long haul.
Copa, Norwegian and WestJet are the leading non-US narrowbody long haul airlines
Copa Airlines, at number four with 6.9%, is the biggest non-US operator in the narrowbody long haul list. This is based on international routes across Latin America and to North America, on which it operates 737-800s.
Norwegian, at number seven, is the second biggest non-US operator and the number two LCC in the list. It operates Boeing 737-800s and MAX 8s on its narrowbody long haul routes and includes both Norwegian Air Shuttle and Norwegian Air International.

Long haul seats in operation by business model and aircraft type*

Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG Schedules Analyser

Norwegian's narrowbody long haul network is not only all international, but is mainly intercontinental (but does include some European north-south routes, e.g. Scandinavia to Gran Canaria and Tenerife). This includes routes to Dubai, North Africa and trans-Atlantic routes from Dublin, Edinburgh and Shannon.
WestJet, another operator of 737-800s and MAX 8s, follows at number eight overall and number three among LCCs. The Canadian airline operates narrowbodies on long haul routes to the Caribbean, Central America and Hawaii, and across the Atlantic to London Gatwick.
S7 Airlines is at number nine in the list, its position mainly based on its Russian domestic network but also on routes to Bangkok, Hong Kong and Europe. It operates both Airbus and Boeing narrowbodies (including MAX 8s).
Icelandair completes the top 10, with a narrowbody fleet mainly comprising 757s but also 737MAX 8s. Its routes of more than 4,000km are all to destinations in North America.

Long haul* narrowbody seats in operation by business model and manufacturer

Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG Schedules Analyser

737 MAX 8 operates the longest narrowbody routes, but A321neoLR has greater range and capacity
Boeing's 737 MAX 8, which entered service in May-2017 with Lion Air, currently operates the longest narrowbody routes. Lion Air has 12 routes of more than 7,000km deploying this variant, although this is pushing the limits of its capability.
According to the CAPA Fleet Database, there are 237 MAX 8 variants in service at 15-Nov-2018 and a further 2,676 on order.
According to the CAPA Fleet Database, there are 90 A321neo variants in service at 15-Nov-2018 but only one A321neoLR (with Arkia Israeli Airlines, not a long haul narrowbody operator: its longest route, Tel Aviv-Bangkok, is served with wet leased Boeing 767 aircraft).
However, Airbus has high hopes of closing the gap with Boeing on the longest range narrowbody routes with its A321neo variants, in particular the A321neoLR. Boeing's MAX family does not have a variant that offers both the range and the seating capacity of the A321neoLR.
According to Airbus, the A321neoLR has a stated range of 7,400km. This is 930km more than for the standard A321neo, whose stated range is similar to that of the 737 MAX 8. The A321neoLR is also superior to the MAX in seating capacity. With a 206 seat two class configuration, or up to 240 seats with a single cabin, it compares favourably with the MAX 8's 178 seats (in two cabins).
Boeing's longest range MAX variant, the still to be delivered MAX 7, has a range close to that of the A321neoLR, but has capacity for only 150-160 passengers in two cabins. There are currently 75 orders for this aircraft.
Boeing's largest variant, also still to be delivered, is the MAX 10. It has a similar capacity to the A321neoLR but a stated range of less than 6,000km. There are more than 500 orders for the MAX 10, but it will not be available before 2020 and it will not address the truly long range segment of the market.
Long haul missions are targeted for A321neoLRs on order
There are 149 A321neoLR aircraft on order at 15-Nov-2018, according to the CAPA Fleet Database.
However, Airbus does not distinguish between the neoLR and other A321neo variants in its orders data. The figure of 149 is based on cross references with other sources, but it is likely that the true number of orders for the neoLR is actually higher than this. The CAPA Fleet Database records 1,349 orders for the A321-200neo and 727 for the A321neo ACF (on which the LR is based).

Long haul narrowbody seats in operation by airline*

Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG Schedules Analyser

Among airlines that have been identified as having orders for the variant are TAP Air Portugal (10 aircraft on order), SATA International (four), Norwegian (30), Air Transat (15) and Aer Lingus (eight), all of which expect to deploy it on trans-Atlantic routes.
Others with A321neoLR orders are Arkia (two more on order), Air Arabia (six), Air Astana (four), Jetstar (18), Peach (two) and Qatar Airways (10). Of these, Air Astana and Qatar Airways currently operate narrowbody routes of more than 4,000km.
The biggest A321neoLR order is for Air Lease Corporation (37 orders) and two other lessors also have orders: AerCap (two aircraft) and Aviation Capital Group (one).
Long haul narrowbody is good news for operators and consumers
With the MAX 8 Boeing has gained a head start on Airbus in the longest narrowbody segments. However, the Airbus A321neoLR beats it on both range and capacity and is aimed at the segment occupied by the Boeing 757, for which Boeing does not currently have a replacement.
However, the aircraft market is not static. Boeing is still examining the possibility of launching a new mid market aircraft, tentatively named the 797. It expects to make a decision on this in 2019, with a view to achieving entry into service in 2025.
If given the green light, this project would be a narrowbody family with a possible range of 4,000nm to 5,000nm (7,300km to 9,100km) and capacity of 200-270 seats (the longer range aircraft would have the smaller capacity).
As a result Airbus has proposed an even longer range A321neoXLR, with a range of 8,300km. This could be launched in 2019 for entry into service in 2021 or 2022 and would probably still give Airbus the edge in combining long range with high capacity.
Either way, the development and growth of a competitive long haul narrowbody market is opening up new city pairs that were not economical with widebodies on a pure point-to-point basis. It is also prompting new business models, such as LCCs, to challenge the dominance of legacy airlines on long haul routes.
This is good news for operators, for consumers, for airports and all industry stakeholders.