Emissions reduction should play a major part in aviation’s post-COVID recovery

An article in Nature Climate Change in May-2020 concluded that 10% of the decline in global CO2 emissions attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic was the result of the reduction in air transport operations. Given that the same article indicated that air transport generally contributes some 2.8% of global CO2 emissions, this is a stark illustration of just how much aviation has suffered in relation to other industries, as well as of its relatively high carbon intensity.

Also in May-2020, there was a paper in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy by contributors including such economist luminaries as Nicholas Stern and Joseph Stiglitz. This focused on a survey of 231 finance ministry officials, central bank officials and other economists representing 53 countries, including all G20 nations, on the relative performance of 25 major fiscal recovery archetypes across four dimensions: speed of implementation, economic multiplier, climate impact potential, and overall desirability. The review of target group respondents showed the worst recovery-type policy of all 25 options, by some margin, was airline bailouts.

The Oxford Review paper suggested that bailouts for airlines should be green conditioned, for example requiring achievement of net-zero emissions by 2050 but with intermediate targets set at five or 10 year intervals; if airlines were unable to meet these targets, bailout funding would be converted to equity at today's very low stock market spot prices.