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Analysis Reports
We employ a global team of highly-experienced analysts who deliver a wealth of commentary about the aviation and travel industry. Our analysts don’t just report the news, they look at the big picture to help you understand how the latest news, issues and trends will affect your business. CAPA’s commitment to independence and integrity means every report is filled with accurate data and actionable insights to help you stay ahead of the game.
Thai Airways has been making major moves to rebuild its international fleet as it looks to restore passenger numbers as an immediate goal, and to help meet the country's longer-term tourism growth aspirations.
Visitor numbers to Thailand have been slow to recover since the COVID-19 pandemic, which is a concern both for its flag carrier and for the broader economy.
Thai Airways' recent fleet modernisation steps are aimed at increasing flows from key markets. This aligns with the government's policy objectives and its desire to boost Thailand's aviation infrastructure.
The airline captured headlines recently with its large order for 45 Boeing 787s, which are due to begin arriving in 2027. Since then, the airline has revealed smaller, but significant, leasing deals to bolster its widebody fleet in particular, before the new orders begin arriving.
Like many other airlines, Thai accelerated its fleet refresh plans as part of restructuring efforts forced by the COVID-19 crisis. This entailed the retirement of many of its older - and larger - widebodies.
The latest moves represent the next step, which is building the fleet back up with more modern aircraft better suited to its needs.
In some respects, such fleet overhaul efforts by Asia-Pacific airlines have reflected the need to adjust to a new operating environment - but they also show how airlines are cognisant of the old adage of never letting a good crisis go to waste.
'Carry On up the Nile' – strategically planned Egyptian airport privatisation moves a step closer
The infamous series of 31 British 'Carry On' films of bawdy, slapstick humour from the 1960s to 1980s didn't include a 'Carry On up the Nile' movie, but arguably the attempts to privatise Egypt's airports could have formed the basis of a script for one.
Not because it has been comedic, but because it has been somewhat chaotic: mainly management contracts predominating - which isn't privatisation anyway - but with BOT projects and wholesale private sector ownership intervening randomly.
Now the Egyptian government has stated twice in the past few months that it is committed to the implementation of processes for offering airport management and operation concessions to the private sector, including in Cairo. It didn't specify to whom, or whether, that means domestic companies or international ones - but it is the latter that have the required experience.
Egypt is a country where the capital city attracts a great deal of the air transport activity, and its three airports, all managed by the same authority, would be top of the list for investors. The other main cities' airports are minnows comparatively.
But the best prospects possibly lie with the sunshine resort airports.
Airbus off to a better start in 2024; few worries in maintaining market share, but pressure remains
The European original equipment manufacturer (OEM) Airbus got 2024 off to a promising start, with Jan-2024 deliveries totalling 30 aircraft to 18 different customers.
Deliveries comprised 26 A320neo family aircraft, along with two A220s and two A330s. This is an uplift of 50% compared to the OEM's Jan-2023 delivery performance.
Even though the start of the year is typically a low point for Airbus' deliveries, the OEM had an unusually slow start in 2023. This was the result of lingering supply chain issues left over from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Airbus has moved to get many of these under control, although CEO Guillaume Faury noted early in 2024 that there are still "plenty" of bottlenecks in the supply chain.
The past two years have been eventful for ultra-low cost operators in the Americas.
Two airlines in Colombia - Viva and Ultra Air - went out of business in 2023. More recently, Canadian ULCC Lynx Air ceased operations, reflecting some of the unique challenges start-ups face in the Canadian market.
Now that JetBlue and Spirit Airlines have officially ended their quest to merge, the US ULCC Spirit must now craft a stand-alone plan in a market that has been challenging for the ultra-low cost model over the past couple of years.
Both of the US' largest ULCCs - Spirit and Frontier Airlines - have tabled plans to reverse their fortunes.
But Sprit could face more headwinds than Frontier in restoring investor confidence - given its debt burden and heightened scrutiny over the ultra-low cost model.
Cebu Pacific’s short term and long term growth plans – part two: demand potential and challenges
Cebu Pacific's ambitious growth plans are based on the promise of untapped demand both in the Philippines and the immediate region, and also on initiatives that will finally address the country's airport infrastructure limitations.
The airline is already one of the most important LCC players in the Asia-Pacific region, and has become the pace-setter in the Philippine domestic market. It is managing to keep its short term capacity rising, and is now negotiating an order for another 100 narrowbody aircraft.
The demographic trends in the Philippine market point to significant potential for demand to soar, certainly enough to justify Cebu Pacific's planned growth. And Manila's proximity to major population centres elsewhere in the region should also give the airline greater market scope.
Airport improvements at the main Manila hub and regional airports, and the construction of new airports, will mean that infrastructure will no longer constrain capacity growth to the extent that it has in the past.
The world’s leading ‘secondary’ large city airports – are there similarities & synergies? Part three
It is the world's primary hub airports which catch the attention and the imagination. They are the ones that are recognised as the 'gateway' to and from a country as if others did not exist, tend to be regarded as glamorous and which have TV programmes made about them.
But in the background are many examples of 'second' city airports, some of which carry very significant amounts of passengers and freight but which go unrecognised.
This three-part report lists the Top 10 as far as can be ascertained by passenger numbers in 2023, with a short portrait of each one. The report also briefly touches on the similarities between them and asks if any synergies can be identified and used, by way of research, to improve the passenger experience.
Part one featured the introduction and looked at Newark Liberty, Shanghai Hongqiao, and London Gatwick airports; part two looked at Istanbul Sabiha Gökçen, Tokyo Narita, Beijing Daxing, and Paris Orly airports.
Part three now will look at Bangkok Don Mueang, Seoul Gimpo, and São Paulo Congonhas airports, as well as sharing some concluding views.
There's a widening of the cracks in the ‘glass ceiling’, but why don’t women run (more) airlines?
Friday the 08-Mar-2024 was International Women's Day.
In honour of this, CAPA - Centre for Aviation continues its long-running series on the (lack) of gender diversity in aviation, posing the question: 'Why don't women run airlines?'
In 2010, the first time CAPA - Centre for Aviation reviewed this issue, there were 15 scheduled commercial airlines which had a woman in the role of CEO or MD.
By 2015, that number was just 18.
In 2018, that number was still stuck at 18.
However, there has been something of a turnaround in recent years.
According to data from the airline industry group International Air Transport Association (IATA), as of 2022, approximately 9% of CEOs at major global airlines were women. This is up from 3% in 2019 and 6% in 2021.
In addition, women filled 12% to 13% of commercial airline industry C-level executive positions.
The world’s leading ‘secondary’ large city airports – are there similarities & synergies? Part two
It is the world's primary hub airports which catch the attention and the imagination.
They are the ones that are recognised as the 'gateway' to and from a country, as if others did not exist. Primary hub airports tend to be regarded as glamorous, and have TV programmes made about them.
But in the background are many examples of 'second' city airports, some of which carry very significant amounts of freight and passengers, but which go unrecognised.
This three-part report lists the Top 10 as far as can be ascertained by passenger numbers in 2023, with a short portrait of each one.
The report also briefly touches on the similarities between them and asks if any synergies can be identified and used, by way of research, to improve the passenger experience.
Part one features the introduction and a look at Newark Liberty, Shanghai Hongqiao and London Gatwick airports; part two will look at Istanbul Sabiha Gökçen, Tokyo Narita, Beijing Daxing, and Paris Orly airports; and part three will look at Bangkok Don Mueang, Seoul Gimpo, and São Paulo Congonhas airports, as well as sharing some concluding views.
Cebu Pacific’s short term and long term growth plans – part one: fleet challenges and new orders
Cebu Pacific is not letting the grounding of some of its Airbus narrowbodies prevent it from increasing capacity, while the airline is also looking to negotiate a major order to support its ambitious long term growth strategy.
It is one of many airlines affected by the Pratt & Whitney engine issues and the need for lengthy maintenance visits. The problem is set to become worse later this year, as the number of aircraft grounded is forecast to increase.
However, the Philippine low-cost carrier is still succeeding in growing its capacity by a healthy margin by negotiating for additional leased aircraft and taking delivery of more new narrowbodies and widebodies.
The airline is also revealing further details about its planned order for about 100 narrowbody aircraft, which will help it take advantage of the massive potential it foresees for more demand growth in the Philippines.
Part one of this analysis looks at how aircraft shortages have affected Cebu Pacific's growth plans, and how it has worked around this issue; it also examines the airline's approach to its largest-ever aircraft order.
The world’s leading ‘secondary’ large city airports – are there similarities & synergies? Part one
It is the world's primary hub airports which catch the attention and the imagination.
They are the ones that are recognised as the 'gateway' to and from a country, as if others did not exist. Primary hub airports tend to be regarded as glamorous, and have TV programmes made about them.
But in the background are many examples of 'second' city airports, some of which carry very significant amounts of freight and passengers, but which go unrecognised.
This three-part report lists the Top 10 as far as can be ascertained by passenger numbers in 2023, with a short portrait of each one.
The report also briefly touches on the similarities between them, and asks if any synergies can be identified and used, by way of research, to improve the passenger experience.
Part one features the introduction and a look at Newark Liberty, Shanghai Hongqiao and London Gatwick airports; part two will look at Istanbul Sabiha Gökçen, Tokyo Narita, Beijing Daxing and Paris Orly airports; and part three will look at Bangkok Don Mueang, Seoul Gimpo and São Paulo Congonhas airports, as well as sharing some concluding views.