Airfreight volumes to increase 4.1% between 2014 and 2018, led by Middle East and Africa: IATA
IATA announced (22-Oct-2014) it expects international airfreight volumes to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.1% over the next five years as part of its 2014 to 2018 industry forecast. The association expects emerging economies, particularly in the Middle East and Africa, to be the fastest growing markets during the period. IATA director general and CEO Tony Tyler said the forecast growth, "would be a marked improvement on the performance of recent years." Mr Tyler said overall risks to the economic outlook remain and trade protectionism is a danger. The forecast may also be affected by geopolitical concerns, oil price volatility and competition from rail and sea transport. Significant volume imbalances are expected to continue, with an estimated imbalance in flows from Asia to North America of 1.1 million tonnes in 2018 and an imbalance of 600,000 tonnes from Asia to the Middle East. IATA expects more than USD6.8 billion worth of goods to be transported by air in 2014, representing 36% of total world trade by value. The association listed the following highlights as part of its forecast:
- China, the UAE and US will each contribute more than one million additional tonnes of freight by 2018;
- The Middle East will be the fastest-growing region with a CAGR of 4.7%, followed by Africa at 4.4%, Asia Pacific and Latin America at 3.8%, Europe at 3% and North America at 2.8%;
- The UAE will replace Germany as the third-largest market by 2018. The 10 largest international freight markets will be the US, China, UAE, Germany, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, the UK, Taiwan and India;
- Iran is expected to be the fastest growing country of those with more than 100,000 tonnes of cargo p/a with a CAGR of 7% p/a to 156,000 tonnes by 2018. India will have the second-fastest growth at 6.8%, followed by Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Qatar;
- Asia-Middle East routes will be the fastest-growing at 6.2% p/a, followed by 4.6% within the Middle East, 3.9% from North America to South America and 3.8% from Europe to Southern Africa. The Asia-Middle East market is expected to increase its traffic share by 0.8ppt to 6.9%. The North Pacific, Mid Pacific, within Europe and North Atlantic markets are expected to lose traffic share, while the within Asia Pacific and Europe-Asia market shares are expected to increase slightly. [more - original PR]