UNWTO: International tourism arrivals could fall by up to 78% in 2020

UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) reported (07-May-2020) its outlook for international tourist arrivals has been downgraded several times since the COVID-19 outbreak began and uncertainty continues to dominate. Current scenarios point to possible declines in arrivals of 58% to 78% year-on-year. These depend on the speed of containment and the duration of travel restrictions and shutdown of borders. The following scenarios for 2020 are based on three possible dates for the gradual opening up of international borders:

• Scenario 1 (-58%) based on the gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions in early Jul-2020;
• Scenario 2 (-70%) based on the gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions in early Sep-2020;
• Scenario 3 (-78%) based on the gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions only in early Dec-2020;

Under these scenarios, the impact of the loss of demand in international travel could translate into:

• Loss of 850 million to 1.1 billion international tourists;
• Loss of USD910 billion to USD1.2 trillion in export revenues from tourism;
• 100 to 120 million direct tourism jobs at risk. [more - original PR]