UNCTAD: Potential downside scenario for coronavirus a USD2 trillion shortfall in global income

UNCTAD forecast (09-Mar-2020) the novel coronavirus outbreak will cause a recession in some countries and depress global annual growth in 2020 year to below 2.5%, the recessionary threshold for the world economy. A preliminary downside scenario sees a USD2 trillion shortfall in global income with a USD220 billion hit to developing countries (excluding China). The most badly affected economies in this scenario will be oil-exporting countries, but also other commodity exporters, which stand to lose more than one percentage point of growth, as well as those with strong trade linkages to the initially shocked economies. Growth decelerations between 0.7% and 0.9% are likely to occur in countries such as Canada, Mexico and the Central American region, in the Americas; countries deeply inserted in the global value chains of East and South Asia, and countries in the immediacy of the EU. [more - original PR]