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UK LEI rises but low and volatile growth expected in 2011: The Conference Board

13-Sep-2010 8:59 AM

UK's Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased (10-Sep-2010) 0.2% in Jul-2010 to 103.4 (2004=100), following gains of 0.5% in Jun-2010 and 0.4% in May-2010, according to The Conference Board. Five of the seven components made positive contributions to the index in the month. The LEI for the UK has been rising since Apr-2009, though its six-month growth rate has continued to moderate and the weaknesses among its components have become more widespread in recent months. At the same time, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) increased by 0.1% in July, after increasing by 0.1% in Jun-2010 and 0.2% in May-2010, according to The Conference Board. The index now stands at 103.1 (2004 = 100). [more]

The Conference Board: “The modest pace of increase of the LEI for the United Kingdom signals that the sharp pickup in output seen during the second quarter is unlikely to be repeated. Even though current economic conditions are still moderately improving, the continued deterioration of consumer confidence highlights the persistence of downside risks and points toward low and volatile growth in 2011,” Jean-Claude Manini,Senior Economist for Europe. Source: Company Statement, 10-Sep-2010.