IEA: Fuel output impact concentrated in 2Q2026, Europe faces 'severe logistical challenge'

International Energy Agency (IEA), in its Oil Market Report for Apr-2026, reported (14-Apr-2026) the following details for jet fuel:

• IEA's current global crude runs forecast of a decline of one million barrels per day year-on-year in 2026 translates to an additional net 200,000 barrels per day reduction in global jet fuel supply, compared to pre-conflict levels. IEA stated the impact will be concentrated in 2Q2026, when output drops by up to 500,000 barrels per day;
• Europe is the primary importing region that relies on the Middle East, with the Middle East typically supplying up to 75% of Europe's net jet fuel imports. IEA stated: "As European markets approach the peak demand season, the loss of Middle East imports presents a severe logistical challenge";
• IEA forecast that if fuel stocks cover in Europe were to drop below 23 days of inventory, "physical shortages may emerge at select airports, resulting in flight cancellations, and demand destruction";
• IEA outlined the following scenarios for Europe:
  • If Europe replaces all of its Middle East imports and volumes, then stocks will adequately cover IEA's assessment of 2026 demand. However, inventory cover will end 2026 below the historic range, "possibly heralding problems for 2027";
  • If Europe replaces 90% of Middle East imports, then the region's stock cover will likely still fall below the typical seasonal low point but should prove adequate to meet summer season peak demand. However, IEA added: "There appears to be only a limited ability to rebuild stocks into year end and the region could end the year at only 26 days cover, well below what would typically be considered a tight inventory cover level";
  • If Europe replaces 75% of its Middle East volumes on a net basis, "it seems likely that there would be insufficient inventory to meet demand in summer months, with cover dropping below the 23 day level that we think likely heralds problems by August";
  • If the global jet fuel market tightens further and European markets are unable to secure more than 50% of their lost Middle East volumes, then stocks will reach the 23 day level in Jun-2026;
• IEA concluded: "It would appear that European markets will need to work harder to attract further replacement cargoes from elsewhere if sufficient inventory is to be maintained over the summer months".